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Here is the predicted track pattern and Best Bet for Wednesday’s meeting at Ballarat.
TRACK
GOOD
TRACKWALKER INFO
Lanes 1-4 as good as any and we’d suggest looking for leaders/on-speed runners that utilise these lanes. As the day progresses we may see an increase in race speed and therefore fitness may become a factor
KEY STAT
Local trainer Matt Cumani is enjoying a terrific run of late with his last 100 runners returning +23% ROI. If you’re up to speed with the new product A2E then he’s sitting at 1.40
A2E is short for Actual To Expected. This measures performance against the market price. Below 1.00 is performing below expectations and above 1.00 is performing above expectations. We use this to establish trends before the market catches up. How does this differ from ROI [return on investment] and POT [profit on turnover]?
This product will capture data for horses that don't win and place. EG Hugh Bowman rides a $101 chance into 4th in a 12-horse field where it was expected to finish last. This wouldn't show up on ROI or POT but A2E would record this as a positive result for Bowman.
BARRIERS
1200m or less – Chute start where covering ground is no disadvantage. In fact, if the rail is inferior it is often advantageous to draw off rail
NIC ASHMAN TIP
Race 3 No.3 GLENS TOP CAT
“Only had 2 runs in Australia and they’ve both been 1UP so we’re seeing him for the first time 2UP in a race and we reckon that’ll spark some improvement. In addition to this, he’s coming out of a hot maiden where the winner has won again since. Worth a speck at $23”
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