BALLARAT: Trackwalker Info + Best Bet

Here is the predicted track pattern and Best Bet for Wednesday’s meeting at Newcastle.

TRACK

SOFT

TRACKWALKER

Lanes 1,2 inferior to Lanes 3+. We’d suggest looking for horses that stalk the speed in the running line or in bunched races [ moderate tempo], look for horses that can settle deep with cover

KEY STAT

Jockey Dean Holland and trainer Adam Chambers have combined on 66 occasions and have an A2E of 1.74 and a POT of +53%

A2E is short for Actual To Expected. This measures performance against the market price. Below 1.00 is performing below expectations and above 1.00 is performing above expectations. We use this to establish trends before the market catches up. How does this differ from ROI [return on investment] and POT [profit on turnover]?

This product will capture data for horses that don't win and place. EG Hugh Bowman rides a $101 chance into 4th in a 12-horse field where it was expected to finish last. This wouldn't show up on ROI or POT but A2E would record this as a positive result for Bowman.

TRACK MAP courtesy of The Great Tipoff

BARRIERS

1200m or less – Chute start with one turn into home straight

1400m - Short run to home turn, wide barriers can be tricky

NIC ASHMAN TIP

Race 2 No.6 STAROSHKA

Should’ve won her maiden here a couple of weeks ago but got held up at a vital stage in the straight. The race rated well and here she maps to settle off rail, which should prove the place to be from the chute starts

NEWCASTLE: Trackwalker Info + Best Bet