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Here is the predicted track pattern and each-way special for Saturday’s meeting at Doomben.
TRACKWALKER INFO
Lane 1 a penalty, Lane 2 better with Lanes 3+ the best. There was plenty of dew on the course on Friday morning but we should end up on a Soft 5 by the first race provided there's no more rain. Horses like EXCELIDA later in the card who need a dry track will probably get it.
KEY STAT
Nash Rawiller riding for Chris Waller is fast becoming a personal ATM. From their last 100 combos, this duo has produced a 21% strike rate and a profit on turnover of +25% and an A2E of 1.51
A2E is short for Actual To Expected. This measures performance against the market price. Below 1.00 is performing below expectations and above 1.00 is performing above expectations. We use this to establish trends before the market catches up. How does this differ from ROI [return on investment] and POT [profit on turnover]?
This product will capture data for horses that don't win and place. EG Hugh Bowman rides a $101 chance into 4th in a 12-horse field where it was expected to finish last. This wouldn't show up on ROI or POT but A2E would record this as a positive result for Bowman. This information is supplied to us by Puntingform.com.au
NIC ASHMAN TIP Race 8 No.14 EXCELIDA $18/$5
“Group 2 winner over 1400m and subsequently Group 1 placed at the mile last prep. Struck a couple of wet tracks this prep and needs it dry. We expect this course to be a Soft 5 at worst when they run this race. She gets the right amount of speed on up front and judging by her recent Doomben trial win she’s settled in super up north. Big each-way play”
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