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Here is the predicted track pattern and Best Bet for Saturday’s meeting at Eagle Farm.
TRACKWALKER INFO
Lanes 1,2 slightly inferior to Lanes 3+. The sweet spot looks to be Lanes 3-7. You can win from wider but it’s a matter of getting there.
KEY STAT
The combination of trainer Kris Lees and jockey Andrew Mallyon has been a good one for punters to follow. From 427 races they’ve struck at 20% with an A2E of 1.24
A2E is short for Actual To Expected. This measures performance against the market price. Below 1.00 is performing below expectations and above 1.00 is performing above expectations. We use this to establish trends before the market catches up. How does this differ from ROI [return on investment] and POT [profit on turnover]?
This product will capture data for horses that don't win and place. EG Hugh Bowman rides a $101 chance into 4th in a 12-horse field where it was expected to finish last. This wouldn't show up on ROI or POT but A2E would record this as a positive result for Bowman.
TRACK MAP courtesy of The Great Tipoff
BARRIERS
1200m or less – Short run to the first turn meaning you can get caught covering ground if drawn wide
NIC ASHMAN TIP
Race 9 No.10 SNEAKY FIVE
She loves being fresh 4:2-1-0 and our data says she’s best at 1000m, a distance she’s only raced over on three occasions for 2 wins and 1 second. We don’t mind the wide draw and she likes a bit of room to move and should have little issues finding a bum in the run to peel off when entering the straight.
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