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Here is the predicted track pattern and Best Bet for Saturday’s meeting at Flemington.
TRACK
GOOD
TRACKWALKER INFO
Lane 1 small penalty but it should play pretty fair across. We think backmarkers down the centre will come into play fractionally more than usual in circle races [1400m+]. Conversely, in straight races we feel horses traveling on the inside rail won’t be so disadvantaged as they normally are
KEY STAT
The combination of Waterhouse & Bott with Jordan Childs is airborne. They’ve combined 101 times for 26 wins with an A2E of 1.53
A2E is short for Actual To Expected. This measures performance against the market price. Below 1.00 is performing below expectations and above 1.00 is performing above expectations. We use this to establish trends before the market catches up. How does this differ from ROI [return on investment] and POT [profit on turnover]?
This product will capture data for horses that don't win and place. EG Hugh Bowman rides a $101 chance into 4th in a 12-horse field where it was expected to finish last. This wouldn't show up on ROI or POT but A2E would record this as a positive result for Bowman.
map courtesy of Racing & Sports
BARRIERS
1400m – Straight into a bend meaning horses drawn wide can cover ground. But it also affects inside gates with horses that can’t muster out of the gates. They get trapped in a hopeless position.
2500m – Straight into the bend at the top of the straight
NIC ASHMAN TIP
Race 5 No.10 GOLDMAN
“Has been busting the clock in Sydney running super times from the front and posting last 200m fractions suggesting he has even more to come. Gets his own way in front and while this is a huge step up, the clock is saying he’ll make the leap. Add to that we have the powerful Waterhouse-Childs combo producing huge profits over a long period of time”
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