GETTING WIDE AT GATTON

Thunderstorms predicted at Gatton on Thursday pave the way for an experienced wet tracker to send us into Cox Plate weekend with a glint in the eye.

TRACK: Heavy 8

WEATHER: The track is expecting 13mm of rain to hit.

TRACKWALKER: Normally a mad leaders course but when the rain falls they tend to get wider and wider and that'll suit our special for the day.

EARLY SPEED: TBF data for Race 4 has LOGANS BLADE holding the lead from his inside gate with AINT SHE LOVELY parking on his outside.

TBF RATINGS: Recent ratings has very little between MR BROSE and BID IN A HURRY with a small gap to AINT SHE LOVELY. Our data has MR BROSE at his best in races over 1100m or less. Yet three of his past four starts have been at 1200m so we're expecting his rating to lift here. We see him parking around midfield one off the fence and providing the track stays soft we see him blending into the race three and four wide around the bend. His final 200m figures are too strong for his rivals plus his wet track form is far superior having placed six from eight including three victories. We've marked him around $3.50 - $3.75 on a genuine soft track. He's currently $4.40.

TBF BET: MR BROSE [4] WIN

STATS FOR THE MEETING

JOCKEY WATCH: Les Tilley is 22 from his last 100 rides with an ROI [return on investment] of +21%. His record at Gatton is superb having ridden six winners from 21 rides over the past 12 moths with an ROI of +25%.

TRAINER WATCH: Veteran trainer Patt Duff has struck at 26% at Gatton over the last 365 days, well above his all tracks average of 9%. Wendy Peel rides more winner for him than any other jockey and they combine in the opener with ON THE TARGET if you're looking for a Thursday heart-starter over 860m!

Good Luck!

Check out 'The Beaten Favourite' podcast preview for Cox Plate day