HAWKESBURY: Trackwalker Info + Best Bet

Here is the predicted track pattern and Best Bet for Saturday’s meeting at Hawkesbury.

TRACKWALKER INFO

Lane 1 a penalty. Lane 2 better, Lane 3 and beyond better again. We’d suggest looking for horses that settle off rail with cover and can blend into the race 3-8 horses off the rail.

KEY STAT

Godolphin’s head trainer James Cummings has taken 54 runners to Hawkesbury over the past year and walked away with 20 winners giving him an enormous strike rate of 38%. When Cummings teams up with Chad Schofield the stats fans out there prick their ears because this combination is striking at 32% with an A2E of 2.20

A2E is short for Actual To Expected. This measures performance against the market price. Below 1.00 is performing below expectations and above 1.00 is performing above expectations. We use this to establish trends before the market catches up. How does this differ from ROI [return on investment] and POT [profit on turnover]?

This product will capture data for horses that don't win and place. EG Hugh Bowman rides a $101 chance into 4th in a 12-horse field where it was expected to finish last. This wouldn't show up on ROI or POT but A2E would record this as a positive result for Bowman. This information is supplied to us by Puntingform.com.au

BARRIERS

1000m or less – Chute start, one turn into home straight

1200m – Short run to the final bend, wide gates can cover ground

NIC ASHMAN TIP

Race 7 No.7 HAWAII FIVE OH

His first run for Waterhouse/Bott was a beauty and just peaked at the 100m but the overall time was strong and he came back to the yard having a good blow.