MONDAY: Trackwalker Info + Best Bet

Here is the predicted track pattern and Best Bet for Sunday’s meeting at the Sunshine Coast.

TRACK

GOOD

TRACKWALKER INFO

Lanes 1,2 inferior to Lane 3 and beyond. We’d suggest looking for horses that settle off rail with cover blending into the race at least three wide into the straight

KEY STAT

Jockey Brodie Loy and trainer Annabel Neasham have combined on 204 occasions for 45 winners with an A2E of 1.2

A2E is short for Actual To Expected. This measures performance against the market price. Below 1.00 is performing below expectations and above 1.00 is performing above expectations. We use this to establish trends before the market catches up. How does this differ from ROI [return on investment] and POT [profit on turnover]?

This product will capture data for horses that don't win and place. EG Hugh Bowman rides a $101 chance into 4th in a 12-horse field where it was expected to finish last. This wouldn't show up on ROI or POT but A2E would record this as a positive result for Bowman.

BARRIERS

1000m – Straight into home bend, wide gates often get trapped without cover

1100m – Kinder start than 1000m but still can be problematic

NIC ASHMAN TIP

Race 2 No.3 I AM THE EMPIRE

“Broke the maiden at Goulburn impressively two starts back and then 22 days into his first crack at 2400m, naturally found wanting. Will improve and suited back in trip”