Nic Ashman's Golden Slipper Analysis

Here is your premium analysis for the 2025 Golden Slipper (1200m) to be run at Rosehill Gardens on Saturday March, 22.

SPEED MAP | 2025 G1 GOLDEN SLIPPER (1200M)

SETTLING POSITIONS

TRACKWALKER INFO

“Small amount of rain forecast Friday/Saturday but provided they don’t over irrigate the track then we should be racing on a good surface. At acceptance time we see a benefit to having a rails in run passage as there’s little benefit being wider around the bend. In the straight the best ground is lanes 2 to 6. We expect horses with low barriers and natural gate speed to be advantaged in sprint races. Backmarkers will need to slice through the middle rather than go around them.”

MAP ANALYSIS

TEMPO – GENUINE TO FAST

BELLAZAINE led last start averaging 11.52 seconds through her first section. That should be enough to see her cross and lead with stablemate FARCITED to her outside. Another Waterhouse/Bott runner, NORTH ENGLAND has faster gate speed than FARCITED but might opt to conserve his energy by taking cover in a genuinely run race. You must remember he was beaten last start at his first run back when making his run on inferior going. Here, the ground where he will make his run looks far more favourable. SKYHOOK could kick up and hold the one out one back spot but his first section speed is about 1L/200m split slower than DEVIL NIGHT and we feel it would diminish his closing speed too much if he went much beyond that. The 2YO with the fastest gate speed on record is MARHOONA, who averaged 11.47 through the first section of the Resiling Stakes when 2nd to TEMPTED. She’s never led and we’d be surprised if they adopted new tactics here but she could hold leaders back thus putting NORTH ENGLAND to her outside and forcing DEVIL NIGHT three wide or perhaps snag back another pair (trio). Certainly MAHROONA is the runner from the on-pace brigade that will be right in her comfortzone, which is why we (Works Burger subs) snapped up the $15 on Tuesday night. She can push on a tad from the gates and make those around her work which should ensure they fold up in the straight, whereas her late speed shows she will keep going. TEMPTED can be closer from gate 1 and will look to stalk MAHROONA wherever she goes knowing that filly should take her a long way. They’ll ride WODETON cold in the hope he can reproduce that devastating spurt we saw on debut. BEIWACHT, KING OF POP and MILITARY TYCOON are the runners most likely to be in the three wide line.

RACE HISTORY

FARNAN is the only favourite in the last 9 years to win

Barriers 1 and 3 have provided 43% of winners over the last 30 years

The last 11 Slipper winners lined up in a total of 31 races before Slipper success. Only on 3 occasions from those 31 contests did the eventual Slipper winner not finish in the Quienlla.

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SETTLING POSITIONS OF THE LAST 10 WINNERS

LADY OF CAMELOT 5th; SHINZO 7th; FIREBURN 13th; STAY INSIDE 4th; FARNAN 1st; KIAMICHI 1st; ESTIJAAB 1st; SHE WILL REIGN 2nd; CAPITALIST 5th; VANCOUVER 5th.

TOP 4 IN BETTING                          PEAK RATING

WODETON                                                        90

His career peak came on debut when he produced an incredibly sharp last 400m that remains the fastest closing speed of any 2YO this season. His raw rating was 82 but such was the dominance of his stretch burst that we bonused him a maximum of 8L. The bonus was applied because his last 400m time of 21.96 in those conditions rates alongside what you’d see from some G1/G2 sprinters. His rating of 90 remains the highest we’ve seen from any juvenile this season. But in two runs since, albeit one with excuses, WODETON has failed to justify the 8L bonus. Saturday will tell us if he’s the real deal or a fresh/sit and sprint specialist.

TEMPTED                                                         87

In contrast to WODETON, this filly’s peak figure was at her most recent start. Her G2 Reisling Stakes victory rated higher than any of the traditional Slipper lead-ups run for 3 weeks before the grand final. The Reisling winner has the best record of any lead-up with 7 fillies doing the double from 48 cracks. TEMPTED won her debut, barrier beat her at start no.2 and then she had no luck in the Blue Diamond when badly held up. Basically, her only two defeats have come with genuine excuses. Barrier 1 has been successful in 5 of the last 15 editions. Her jockey BLAKE SHINN is striking at 27% from his last 100 rides and is beating market expectation by 15% during this period.If there’s one knock, its whether or not she had her grand final last start but she should be outright favourite in our opinion.

SKYHOOK                                                         85

Like TEMPTED, this colt’s peak figure came at his most recent start, which is always a plus. But unlike TEMPTED, he did it off a soft tempo and therefore minimising his chances of going flat. There’s two attributes to identifying 2YOs that can win big races – 1. Dominant 2YO or 2. One that keeps progressing in his/her ratings. He fits the latter and given we don’t have any standouts, its easy to make a case SKYHOOK can win the Slipper. He should’ve beat RIVELLINO two starts back in the Skyline when held up, checked before darting back to the inferior going and recording the best last 200m of the day. He atoned last week in the Pago Pago Stakes, a race where 4 colts/geldings have done the double from 37 attempts. The key for SKYHOOK is to ensure he doesn’t use himself up too much early doors.

RIVELLINO                                                        85

Peak Rating from his Skyline Stakes win but we heavily bonused it due to the lack of tempo. That’s the concern – whether he can convert that sharp turn of foot into a fast overall time? But there’s nothing to say he won’t. Relative to benchmark figures, his last 200m in the Skyline was his strongest and one thing this colt has shown is the ability to make his run well away from the rail. Not all 2YOs are comfortable when they don’t have the rail to follow. He’s been able to do it from day one and that’s a sign of a mature juvenile.

MARHOONA                                                    86

This filly has only ever been in fast run races. They’ve gone 5L and 6L above standard through the first section on both occasions and she’s been tough on the line each time. Have a look at the replay of the Reisling Stakes when she was narrowly beaten by TEMPTED, she was coming back just past the post. That’s a great asset to have coming into the Golden Slipper. Her natural gate speed means she can be on pace without over exerting and that is a huge advantage. In most Golden Slippers, the majority of on pace runners are outside their comfortzone and weaken noticeably. She was 4 weeks between runs into her last start and you could argue has the most improvement to come.

LONGSHOTS PEAK RATING

NORTH ENGLAND                                       84

Peak Rating came on debut last October and he ran almost identical figures at start number two. Typically, we see 2YOs progress in terms of ratings over the Christmas break. This colt has only had the one run in 2025 and he looked  very fresh trying to lead all the way in a race where the winner came from last on a track that favoured horses down the middle. He’s only got to find a couple of lengths off his debut to be in the mix.

TYCOON STAR                                                86

Peak Rating came in both the Prelude and Blue Diamond where we elected to bonus him 4L given he was 10L below standard through hthe first 600m and was clearly the best of the backmarkers. His hope lies within the race shape. The only race he’s contested with above standard speed through the first section was his debut, which remains the only race he’s won. A fast run Slipper could play right into this roughie’s hands.

DEVIL NIGHT                                                   86

Peak Rating was his Blue Diamond victory and this no-nonsense colt has both gate speed and grit, which is what makes him a successful juvenile. TENTYRIS was 2nd in the Blue Diamond and beat WODETON in the Todman. The form has held up well and given he’s double figures, he’s got to be in your exotics at the very least.

Here’s what I’ve got the Top 5 in betting marked. Works Burger subs that were on board Tuesday night have already played into the race. See below