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Weights for Australia’s greatest race, the Melbourne Cup, have been released and here is your early guide to landing the winner in 2024.
In this article Nic will take you through;
A brief history of the race
How to understand the ballot order and weights system
The current order of entry including horses that have already qualified
Early Ratings Analysis including Nic's latest theory on how to nail the Cup winner
HISTORY
The Melbourne Cup was first conducted in 1861 won by ARCHER, who would take it out the following year.
It wasn’t until 1875 the Cup was run on a Tuesday. It would later become recognised as “the first Tuesday in November”.
A year later BRIESIS became the first three-year-old filly to win the Melbourne Cup. The last three-year-old to win was SKIPTON in 1941.
MAKYBE DIVA is the only horse to win the Melbourne Cup on three occasions
PHAR LAP is the shortest priced winner starting at 8/11 or $1.72 when he won the Cup in 1930 while PRINCE OF PENZANCE in 2015 was the equal longest at $101
4 of the last 5 winners have come through either the Caulfield Cup or Cox Plate
Every winner since ALMANDIN in 2016 has started between $8 and $26
WEIGHTS
If the Melbourne Cup were to be run tomorrow this is how the field would look;
If you look at the column titled ‘Ballot’ it tells you where each horse sits in the order of entry. This is often referred to as "the ballot".
There is a direct correlation between ‘Ballot’ and ‘Hcp Rating’ [the far-right column]. The Hcp Rating refers to the gap between a horse’s Weight-For-Age weight and its allotted weight for the 2024 Melbourne Cup. The bigger the gap the lower down the order of entry a horse will be unless it had won a ballot exempt race [more on that in a moment].
Remember the Melbourne Cup is a handicap, where good horses are given a penalty to even the field out. Races like the Cox Plate are Weight-For-Age [WFA], which is set weights based on your age and sex. WFA races are designed for the best horses because they don’t have to give a weight advantage to their rivals like they would in a handicap.
The key to winning a Melbourne Cup is to beat the handicapper so a horse like last year’s winner, WITHOUT A FIGHT, who has been allotted 58.5kg, has not beaten the handicapper unless he comes back lengths better this spring, which is unlikely. His weight of 58.5kg represents 1kg less than what he would carry if this race was run under WFA conditions. This is why under the ‘Hcp Rating’ column he has ‘1’ next to his name making him the highest rated horse in the field. Next is VIA SISTINA with a '2', which means she will carry 2kg less than what she would if the race was run under WFA conditions. Queensland Derby winner, WARMONGER, who made a terrific return in the G1 Makybe Diva Stakes last weekend, has 53.5kg, which is 4.5kg under WFA. A basic way of comparing these weights is to say WITHOUT A FIGHT needs to be 3.5kg [4.5kg - 1kg] better than WARMONGER if he is to beat him in the Melbourne Cup.
So what is 3.5kg worth?
Back in the 90s when I was honing my skills at this magnificent caper, I stumbled upon an article [not online] by an incredibly educated fellow in the UK. He used mathematics to determine at 3200m 1kg is worth 2 lengths. I've always been a numbers nerd and his reasoning resonated with me. This would mean WITHOUT A FIGHT needs to be 7L superior to WARMONGER to beat him in the 2024 Melbourne Cup [more on this a bit later].
Back to our field as it is graphic and a horse with ‘1=” next to their name means they are exempt from ballot, which usually means they’ve won a qualifying race. These horses – THE GREY WIZARD, MAGICAL ZOE, POINT KING and THE MAP have already earned their spot in the 2024 Melbourne Cup.
The rest must battle it out by climbing the ballot. To climb the ballot you need to earn a penalty, which brings your Hcp Rating closer to your allotted weight. Currently no.24 on the ballot is SHARP 'N' SMART, who is 6kg off his WFA weight. You earn penalties for winning certain races like the Caulfield Cup, Geelong Cup and Moonee Valley Cup. Very rarely do we see penalties above 2kg therefore horses that have the figure 8 or higher in the Hcp Rating column will almost certainly need to win a ballot exempt race to get in.
Races like The Bart Cummings at Flemington on October 5 and The Lexus on Derby day provide automatic entry to the Melbourne Cup for the winner.
ANALYSIS
The modern Melbourne Cup is won by class horses that typically have the turn of foot to compete at 2000m. The last 3 winners, VERRY ELLEEGANT, GOLD TRIP and WITHOUT A FIGHT all were competitive at G1 level over shorter distances.
This analysis will focus on horses that have raced in Australia. We’ll look at the imports in October and its worth noting the last 5 Cup winners had all raced in Australia previously.
SYDNEY CUP – MELBOURNE CUP | CIRCLE OF FIRE $15
Just 2 horses have complete this grueling double – CARBINE and MAKYBE DIVA, both will go down as two of the greatest thoroughbreds to grace our turf. That is the battle that faces CIRCLE OF FIRE in 2024. But the import sat three wide without cover in the Sydney Cup and ran away from them in the straight. Hard to think of a more impressive winner of the Randwick feature.
VICTORIA DERBY – MELBOURNE CUP | RED ACES $201
SKIPTON in 1941 was the last horse to complete this rare double. NOTHIN LEICA DANE went close in 1995 behind DORIEMUS. There is just one 3YO nominated for the Cup in 2024. RED ACES will be a live chance in the Derby given his supreme staying form in two starts over the winter months and connections are obviously dreaming even higher.
NIC'S LATEST CUP THEORY
It must be said, over the years I have indulged upon many punting theories, most of which I've enjoyed using with my buddies but often with little or no profit. One thing I have learned is that you need to be dynamic with your theories, meaning you have to modify them according to the present trends. Below is the most modern theory I apply to selecting the Melbourne Cup winner each year.
When I look at ratings for horses from one prep to another, clearly the biggest change is autumn to spring. And its not because they turn 1-year older on August 1. It’s because they have longer breaks over winter versus summer. They finish their prep in April and return 4 months later in August with woolly coats. The summer break sees them done by late October or November and resume in February around 3 months later often with dapples not far off. I concluded a horse’s ratings are more likely to hold over a summer break than winter due simply to the length of break. Based on this, I further concluded that a horse who raced over the winter producing good staying ratings is a more reliable Cup prospect.
The European dominance over the last 2 decades has taught us one thing – you need to be racing during for at least part of the Australian winter. Since 2016, the European winners – ALMANDIN, REKINDLING, CROSS COUNTER and TWILIGHT PAYMENT all raced during our winter before going abroad. And 3 of the 4 the Aussie winners since then – VOW AND DECLARE, GOLD TRIP and WITHOUT A FIGHT raced in either June or July maintaining residual fitness for their spring campaign.
You have to be smart when you apply this winter campaign theory. A horse that spelled in April and then resumes in the Winx Stakes at the end of August does not qualify. GOLD TRIP had a run in July over 1500m then 6 weeks between runs before reappearing in September. This qualifies because for him to run over 1500m in July means he’s done plenty of work and retained fitness coming into September. WITHOUT A FIGHT and VOW AND DECLARE both raced during the Brisbane winter.
Which Australian horses fit the winter campaign criteria?
WARMONGER won the Queensland Derby and when you watch his slashing 4th behind MR BRIGHTSIDE in the G1 Makybe Diva Stakes last Saturday you can see that residual fitness there. But with 53.5kg he’s only 4.5kg off his WFA weight. He might prove to be a WFA star and therefore this weight may look light in a few weeks time.
POINT KING for mine is the best weighted horse in the field. He has 50.5kg, which is 9kg less than what he should carry at WFA. If you subscribe to the theory that 1kg = 2L at this distance then it means he can be 8L inferior to WARMONGER and still finish alongside him. It must be said racing isn’t an exact science. These calculations should be used to steer you around rather than park your vehicle at the destination if you catch my drift?
POINT KING also ticks the winter campaign criteria. The Irish import finished 4th in the St Leger Trial in Ireland in 2023 before shuttling to Australia. He had one run for Kris Lees on May 25, which means he did plenty of work in the late autumn months. Then he’s resumed for the Freedman’s on August 10 – an early spring run, which he won with good closing splits suggesting he wasn’t just having a lung burner. POINT KING then wins the Archer Stakes in slog -fest gaining automatic qualification for the Cup. His sectionals show he was fit for last Saturday's test, which means he was close to peak fitness during our winter. The Freedman’s won last year’s Cup with WITHOUT A FIGHT, a horse that had a winter campaign. They’ve worked it out. Now with POINT KING in the Cup, the stable can back off him and focus solely on turning up at 100 per cent on the first Tuesday of November. What we have learned is that it is easier to keep them ticking over as opposed to getting them to their peak.
Is FAWKNER PARK the 2024 version of WITHOUT A FIGHT? He won the Q22 in Brisbane in June [same race Without A Fight won last year] and will resume in Saturday’s Underwood Stakes at Caulfield with his trainer Annabel Neasham saying he will follow the same path as last year’s Cup winner. He ticks the Winter campaign criteria and his ratings are good enough. I also like that he came of age at the end of last prep.
The best way to beat the handicapper is to be running your best ratings now with the possibility of going higher at your next few starts. That is what WARMONGER, POINT KING and FAWKNER PARK all have in common. Their careers have come together in their last 5 starts and its quite likely one of them will go to a new level this spring.
2024 Melbourne Cup - Aussie Entries to follow
1. POINT KING
2. WARMONGER
3. FAWKNER PARK
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Here is the 40 horses in the order of entry for the Melbourne Cup;
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