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Here is the predicted track pattern and Each-Way special for Thursday’s meeting at Pakenham.
TRACKWALKER INFO
Lane 1 a penalty, Lane 2 better but still inferior. Lanes 3 better with Lanes 4+ the best ground. Sweet spot where you can expect the A-grade ground is Lanes 6-10.
KEY STAT
Zac Spain has ridden 11 winners at Pakenham over the past year with a profit on turnover of +26%. He’s rare form of late as well winning 19 of his last 100 rides with a profit on turnover of +36% and an A2E of 1.54
A2E is short for Actual To Expected. This measures performance against the market price. Below 1.00 is performing below expectations and above 1.00 is performing above expectations. We use this to establish trends before the market catches up. How does this differ from ROI [return on investment] and POT [profit on turnover]?
This product will capture data for horses that don't win and place. EG Hugh Bowman rides a $101 chance into 4th in a 12-horse field where it was expected to finish last. This wouldn't show up on ROI or POT but A2E would record this as a positive result for Bowman. This information is supplied to us by Puntingform.com.au
NIC ASHMAN TIP Race 8 No.11 THINK I’M FAMOUS $18/$4.40
“The run first-up looks worse than it was. Figures show he ran the 10th best last 200m of the meeting over a mile, a commendable stat for a horse resuming. He also wasn’t suited by the Soft 6 conditions plus Seymour is a track that plenty don’t handle. He won second-up last prep at this trip and if the track gets into the good range his chances soar. Our Trackwalker Info is saying Lanes 6-10 and we expect him to make his run there””
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