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Here is the predicted track pattern and Best Bet for Saturday’s meeting at Randwick.
TRACK
HEAVY
TRACKWALKER INFO
There is some wear and tear in the first three lanes and we’d suggest looking for horses that can make their run in Lane 4 or wider. Right out in Lanes 10-14 there is some firmer ground and in bigger fields where the leaders veer off rail we may see horses get right out wide for what I’d describe as the ‘Golden Lanes’.
some
KEY STAT
Jay Ford and the Curtis stable have a 41% strike rate when they combine. The A2E on this combo is 1.76 and that’s from 100 races – good sample size
A2E is short for Actual To Expected. This measures performance against the market price. Below 1.00 is performing below expectations and above 1.00 is performing above expectations. We use this to establish trends before the market catches up. How does this differ from ROI [return on investment] and POT [profit on turnover]?
This product will capture data for horses that don't win and place. EG Hugh Bowman rides a $101 chance into 4th in a 12-horse field where it was expected to finish last. This wouldn't show up on ROI or POT but A2E would record this as a positive result for Bowman.
BARRIERS
1200m or less – Chute start with one turn into home straight
NIC ASHMAN TIP
Race 10 No.13 DALCHINI
“I'm going hard each-way here on a 1x4 basis. Go and study her 3UP form and you'll note she's been highly competitive against the likes of HOPE IN YOUR HEART, GIN MARTINI and has been around the mark at stakes level her past two preps. She gets the speed on she needs here, relishes wet ground. I can't be more confident this mare will run you a race here at $51”
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