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Here is the predicted track pattern and Best Bet for Saturday’s meeting at Randwick.
TRACKWALKER INFO
There’s some wear and tear in the first few lanes but they are walking fine and we’d suggest you look for runners that can make their runs in Lanes 1,2,3. The one caveat we’ll place on this is that around Lanes 8-10 the ground gets better again and we might see some jockeys with initiative head that way as the meeting progresses
KEY STAT
The stats around James McDonald when he teams up with the Maher-Eustace camp are nothing short of sensational. From 76 races, this combo has won 27 times at the healthy strike rate of 36%. The return on investment for this duo is +39% and for those that are enjoying our new product A2E this sits at 1.53 meaning they are beating market expectations by 53% [see below]. J Mac has one ride for Maher-Eustace and it comes up in the last – BLAZE THE TRAIL, who resumes and we’d suggest if there’s any money for him you follow it in.
A2E is short for Actual To Expected. This measures performance against the market price. Below 1.00 is performing below expectations and above 1.00 is performing above expectations. We use this to establish trends before the market catches up. How does this differ from ROI [return on investment] and POT [profit on turnover]?
This product will capture data for horses that don't win and place. EG Hugh Bowman rides a $101 chance into 4th in a 12-horse field where it was expected to finish last. This wouldn't show up on ROI or POT but A2E would record this as a positive result for Bowman.
TRACK MAP courtesy of The Great Tipoff
BARRIERS
1200m or less – Out of a chute start with one turn into the home straight making wide gates ok with respect to covering ground
1400m – In a chute on its own and you can get trapped wide covering ground
NIC ASHMAN TIP
Race 8 No.4 CASCADIAN
Like a good wine this galloper gets better with age. His best ratings have come over the past 12 months. He loves wet tracks, won this race last year and is coming off one of his best rated victories of his career. If you’re worried about how he’s freshened up coming back from 2000m, we reached out to James Cummings who replied with “he’s dangerously well”.
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