Saturday Bets! 2024 Blue Diamond Stakes

Middle barriers and a top-two finish at your last outing is the right formula for Blue Diamond Stakes success.

BLUE DIAMOND STAKES

1200m – Group 1 – Set Weights

First run in 1971, the Blue Diamond Stakes boasts prizemoney of $2 million and is considered Victoria’s premier 2YO contest.

Leading Trainer David Hayes has 6 Blue Diamonds in the cabinet while jockey bragging rights are shared between Roy Higgins and Dwayne Dunn each with 4.

In 1982, RANCHER became the first horse to complete the ‘Blue Diamond Treble’ winning the Preview, Prelude and Diamond in the same year. Since then, 4 more juveniles have completed the feat including star juvenile SEPOY in 2011. SEPOY and RANCHER are the shortest-priced favourites to win the Blue Diamond Stakes both starting at $1.40.

Other famous winners include REDOUTE’S CHOICE who won in 1999 before going on to win the Caulfield Guineas and the Manikato Stakes in the same year. ALINGHI also had great success after winning in 2004 going on to win the Thousand Guineas and the Ascot Vale (Coolmore Stud) Stakes.

How do Favourites fare in this race?

‘No favourite has won in the last 6 years. But…’

The last favourite to win was WRITTEN BY in 2018. But their record before that was supreme with 6 of 8 favourites winning from SEPOY through to WRITTEN BY. If you had $100 on every favourite since SEPOY to HAYASUGI last year then you would be up $390.

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What Barriers are most successful?

‘90% of winners in the last decade have jumped from Barriers 4 to 11’

The Blue Diamond Stakes has a capacity field of 16 runners and is almost always full. This means 7 (43%) runners each year jump from double-digit barriers. Of the last 10 winners, 9 have jumped from Barriers 4 to 11. The only winner not to was WRITTEN BY from Barrier 15. The last winner to jump from Barriers 1 to 3 was MIRACLES OF LIFE in 2013; before that BEL ESPIRIT in 2002.

Does it matter where my horse settles?

‘History shows horses settling midfield have an advantage’

Only 3 of the last 10 Blue Diamond heroes have been in the top 4 at the 600m. Here is the position at 600m of the last 10 winners:

HAYASUGI 10th; LITTLE BROSE 7th; DAUMIER 7th; ARTORIUS 12th; TAGALOA 3rd; LYRE 13th; WRITTEN BY 2nd; CATCHY 12th; EXTREME CHOICE 4th; PRIDE OF DUBAI 8th 

 What kind of Lead-Up form should I look for?

‘A colt/gelding from the Preview OR a Filly from the Prelude who finished top two’

The most intriguing stat uncovered reveals only 2 of the last 18 winners of the Blue Diamond Stakes have finished outside the quinella at their previous run. A good last start result seems a key ingredient for Blue Diamond success.

The most proven lead-up is the Fillies Prelude with 37 Fillies having a crack at the double and 10 (27%) winning. PALM ANGEL is looking to become the 6th filly in 14 years to complete this popular double. The girls Prelude has a far better strike rate than the boys, with just 5 (14%) colts from 36 bagging the Prelude-Diamond double. Ironically, the Preview for the boys is a better guide where they’re 8 (25%) from 32.

SHINING SMILE won the Preview this year before dead-heating for first in last Saturday’s Talindert Stakes. The last horse to win the Talindert-Diamond double was STAR WITNESS in 2010.

We’ve mentioned that just 2 of the last 18 winners finished further back than 2nd at their previous outing but if you’re backing a filly then prick your ears, the last 8 female winners all won at their previous start.

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Which stables dominate this race?

The big guys.

It’s been a happy hunting ground for the big stables with 8 of the last 11 editions won by either Snowden, Price, Freedman or Hayes.

Andy’s Rundown for the Blue Diamond Stakes:

With only a couple of starts under their belts, recent form is vital for momentum so I’m looking for a horse that finished in the quinella last start complemented with a middle barrier that will enable it to get out and run on like 7 of the previous 10 winners. That steers me towards MY GLADIOLA who fits the criteria – 2nd last start starting from Barrier 11 who ran on superbly from 6th at the 800m in the Fillies Preview. PALM ANGEL will look to keep the great record of Fillies winning the Prelude/Diamond going from a tough barrier; FIELD OF PLAY should be up there and will look to end the drought of the last C/G winner of both Prelude/Diamond. Keep an eye on TENTYRIS at odds – Barrier 4; from the Freedman stable; won the Talindert Stakes in a dead heat with SHINING SMILE who won the Preview a start earlier, and we know that is a great guide for the boys.

Nic Ashman Tip:

No Sepoy standout this year but FIELD OF PLAY has done nothing wrong. For years, when searching for the BD winner, I’ve looked for a 2YO that won at Moonee Valley pre Christmas and has that perfect let-up before one run in. I got a good result out of  EARTHQUAKE and CATCHY while others have followed a similar formula. FIELD OF PLAY can settle handy without being caught up in a speed battle should one unfold. He reminds me of his stablemate TAGALOA, who beat HANSEATIC a few years ago. The boys Prelude rated much better than the girls this year. Out of that race, DEVIL NIGHT was on debut and surely improves the most? Best roughie might be AUTUMN MYSTERY who flew home in the Prelude but has his work cut out for him from gate 16, a spot no juvenile has had success from. Then there’s TYCOON STAR who possesses a big finish and gets the blinkers on first time. I’ll be watching the market closely on ICARIAN DREAM off a freshen-up. Best overs in early betting is EXTRACTOR, who is one of the few 2YOs in this race that will relish the step up to 1200m.