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Saturday Bets! 2025 Australian Derby
- Andy G
- 2 days ago
- 5 min read
With the last 8 winners of the Australian Derby finishing in the quinella in their previous run, coming in hot appears to be a major determinant for success over a mile and a half.
AUSTRALIAN DERBY
2400m – Group 1 – 3YO Set Weights
The classic ATC Australian Derby is the final G1 of Championship Day 1 at Royal Randwick. It is run over 2400m at set weights for the 3YOs with C&Gs set at 56.5kg and the Fillies carrying 54.5kg.
First raced in 1861, the Derby has long been considered one of the jewels in the crown of Sydney racing. With a list of distinguished winners including PHAR LAP (1929), TULLOCH (1957), KINGSTON TOWN (1980), NATURALISM (1992), OCTAGONAL (1996) and IT’S A DUNDEEL (2013), it's easy to see why. The Derby carries a total prize packet of $2 million.
Tommy Smith has a stranglehold on Leading Trainer with 9 victories – 4 ahead of Bart Cummings and Murray Baker who came across the ditch and won 5 Derbies between 2008 and 2020. The Leading Jockey is Tom Hales who was first past the post 6 times. There have been 12 different Jockeys win the Derby in the last 15 years.
How do Favourites fare in this race?
‘Very well – in recent times…’
Being a Favourite in the Derby has not been favourable historically with only 7 Favourites winning the Derby since 1995 striking at 23%. This statistic has improved over the years however with 4 Favourites triumphing in the past 12 years (33%) and even more recently – 2 Favourites have emerged victorious in the past 3 years which is logical for a set weights race.
The common theme with SPs has generally seen shorter-priced contenders do quite well – again supporting the logic of good horses going well in a set weights race. In the last 15 years, 10 horses have won with a SP of $8 or less with this trend continuing in the past decade with 6 horses winning again with a SP of $8 or less. Interestingly, we have seen 3 winners in the past 6 years win at much bigger odds – MAJOR BEEL at $31 in 2023, EXPLOSIVE JACK at $16 in 2021 and ANGEL OF TRUTH at $15 which have been anomalies regarding winning SPs over the years.
What Barriers are most successful?
‘Inside; then middle; then wide…’
Since 1995, the inside gates of Barriers 1 to 4 have been the most successful with these positions accounting for 13 Derby victories.
However, the domination of these gates has evaporated over time. In the years following 2010, there has been a noticeable change with the majority of winners emerging from Barriers 5 to 9 producing 7 victories in 15 years. Even more recently, in the past 4 years, the success of Barrier 15 is worth noting with this position producing 2 winners demonstrating that wide barriers may be more favourable.
This is a striking contrast to earlier years with horses starting from more diverse positions now and finding success. The evolving trends in winning barriers suggest the Derby is more unpredictable than in previous years and may highlight the importance of other factors beyond their starting position.
Does it matter where my horse settles?
‘Allen’s Party Mix of positions…’
An assortment of settling positions reveals an unpredictable pattern for winners. Recently, most winners have settled in an off-midfield position before stalking on-pace runners. Earlier in the decade, many winners have found themselves on-pace at the 800m before going through the gears.
Since 2015, the Derby has been raced on a Good track just once. The other 9 Derbies were raced on a rain-affected track.
Here is the position at the 800m of the last 10 winners:
Nic Ashman provides race previews and tactics for jockeys/trainers in major G1 races. Star jockey Billy Egan recently reached out to Nic asking for his thoughts on the G1 Australian Guineas. Here's what Nic sent to Blly;
Nic's tactical analysis proved spot on and Billy partnered FEROCE to victory in the stallion-making contest. Now, Nic is sharing these G1 previews. The Bet Sheets include Nic's 3 Best Bets for the day with a staking plan that in its first 12 month had 609 bets for +18% Profit On Turnover. The offer wraps up after Day 2 of The Championships. That means if you start this week you get 6 x Track Reports (Syd/Mlb), 6 x Bet Sheets plus a summary in chronological order of all bets and staking plus selections in all 10 races in Sydney and Melbourne every Saturday. It's called the 'Works Burger' package and its for punters that want the lot! Click the box below and enter the coupon code "Slipper25".
Here's what our Bet Sheet looks like;
What kind of Lead-Up form should I look for?
‘Coming in hot, hot, hot…’
The Rosehill Guineas has long been a traditional lead-up race for the Derby with 9 winners between 2005 and 2015 having raced in the event prior to their Derby victory. This period highlights the importance of the Rosehill Guineas as a lead-up – although there has been a shift in strategy in the last decade.
Firstly, the overwhelming success of Kiwi invaders such as NOM DE JUE (2008) and TAVAGO (2016) has seen some Kiwi horses preferring to prep in New Zealand before arriving in Australia to challenge for the Derby.
Secondly, the Tulloch Stakes has emerged as the most common route to the Derby with 5 of the last 8 winners using it as their final hit out before the Derby. Notably, all 5 of these Derby winners finished in the quinella of the Tulloch further cementing the race's importance as a key lead-up.
Most importantly, the last 8 winners have finished in the quinella of their prior race, with 6 of those 8 winners actually winning their lead-up race. This trend underscores the importance of coming into the Derby with strong momentum.
Only 9 Fillies have won the Derby in 163 years. Since 1979, there have been 32 Fillies who have attempted to win the Derby, but only 4 who secured victory – the last was SHAMROCKER in 2011. Before her win was RESEARCH back in 1989.
To hear Nic's tip for the Australian Derby plus an insight into this weekend's racing at Randwick, click on the latest episode of The Beaten Favourite below.
Did you know?
“3 Derbies in 3 months…”
EXPLOSIVE JACK remarkably won a hattrick of Derbies in 2021 – the Tasmanian Derby in February, the Australian Derby in April before backing up and winning the South Australian Derby in May.
Andy’s Rundown for the Australian Derby:
There are a lot of variables in the Derby this year due to external factors – most notably, the Tulloch was raced on a Heavy track last Tuesday giving horses only a 4-day turnaround. So will these horses be coming in primed – or tired? And AELIANA will need to defy history and win as a Filly for the first time in 14 years.
The Kiwi invasion is what grabs my attention with WILLYDOIT coming in smoking hot with 4 wins in his last 5 starts including a last-up victory over 2400m a couple of weeks ago. He has won on a Good track and on a Soft track 3 times so it’s tick, tick, tick for me. The challenge will come from AELIANA who was electric behind BROADSIDING last start in the Rosehill Guineas and will look to continue the winning momentum of Favourites. Can POCKETING stay hot from the Tulloch on Tuesday? Might be worth finding out at $35. GOLDRUSH GURU is a better horse than what he showed last start and can battle for this one.
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