Saturday Bets! 2025 Australian Guineas

With only 3 Favourites winning since 2009, a nice inside gate and some value in betting could give punters a leg up in the 2025 Australian Guineas.

AUSTRALIAN GUINEAS

1600m – Group 1 – Set Weights

The G1 in Melbourne this weekend will see the 3YOs head to Flemington for the 40th running of the Australian Guineas worth $1 million in prize money.

The inaugural race was run in 1986 with the winner TRUE VERSION clocking a time of 1:35.7. The race has set the platform for winners and future success including ZABEEL (1990), APACHE CAT (2006), SHAMUS AWARD (2014) and ALLIGATOR BLOOD (2020).

Damian Oliver has the most wins as a Jockey with 3 while three Trainers share top spot also with 3 wins – Lee Freedman, Colin Hayes and Mick Price.

How do Favourites fare in this race?

‘Not a good hunting ground for the Favs…’

The horse on the top line of betting has not delivered many wins in recent history. Only 3 Favourites have managed to win in the past 16 years – a strike rate of 19%. It seems success has derived from the second to fourth line of betting. In the last 11 years, 8 winners have had a SP of $8 or less. While the Favourites have missed out, their fancied rivals have taken advantage.

This includes LUNAR FOX in 2021 – who became the biggest-priced winner of a G1 in Australian Racing history with a SP of $301.

Saturday Bets! Verry Elleegant Stakes Stakes

What Barriers are most successful?

‘Stay close to the fence…’

Jumping as close to the fence as possible has provided the most winners of late with 5 winners in the past 6 years jumping from Barriers 1 to 5. Expanding on this theory, 16 winners in the past 30 years have used Barriers 1 – 5 to be first past the post. Only 3 winners since 1995 have jumped from Barrier 10 or wider.

Does it matter where my horse settles?

‘There are more important variables…’

A bit of a mixed bag in terms of where winners have sat at the 800m. Most have predominantly sat in midfield before running on, however, there have been a few leaders who have gone on with it while others have sat at the back and rounded them up. Conclusion – the speed of the race will have a huge impact on where the best place to settle is.

Here is the position at 800m of the last 10 winners:

SOUTHPORT TYCOON 7th; LEGARTO 11th; HITOTSU 7th; LUNAR FOX 9th; ALLIGATOR BLOOD 1st; MYSTIC JOURNEY 5th; GRUNT 6th; HEY DOC 4th; PALENTINO 12th; WANDJINA 1st.

What kind of Lead-Up form should I look for?

‘Traditionally CS Hayes – but it’s not set in stone…’

The most popular road taken over the past decade has been the CS Hayes Stakes where 6 winners have used this race as a lead-up. Form out of this race has been a good guide too with 5 of those 6 winners of the Guineas finishing in the quinella in the CS Hayes.

Having said that, the last 3 winners have not used the CS Hayes. We’ve seen a 1UP winner; a winner race in NZ before coming over; and another use the Autumn Stakes which was a more fancied lead-up to the Guineas back in the late 90s and early 2000s.

Do the Boys or Girls win more?

“Let’s hear it for the Boys…’

The Fillies don’t seem to have much luck in the Guineas winning just twice in the past decade. Since 1986, there have been only 5 Filly wins. To be fair, this is not a race usually targeted by the Fillies. The Colts & Geldings have a strike rate of 87%.

What should I take note of?

‘Mikey Dee and Numbers 3 & 10…’

Michael Dee is the only jockey to have tasted success twice since 2010. The other 13 victories are shared across 13 different jockeys.

Horses wearing Saddlecloths 3 and 10 have not won in the past 30 years. Just in case you are superstitious.

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Andy’s Rundown for the Australian Guineas:

With 13 horses coming out of the CS Hayes and the Autumn Stakes, punters need to lean towards which was the superior race? I would be happy to lean towards the contemporary lead-up form of the CS Hayes and back SEPAL. Why? Well I don’t want to be on the Favourite with their lack of victories in the Guineas; SEPAL is in a great barrier historically for a chance of victory; a Gelding; Blake Shinn would continue the pattern of first-time winners; going for 4 wins in a row; ran a faster time than ANGEL CAPITAL over 1400m last start – am I missing something? That $6 will be crunched when that red light flashes at 4:15pm on Saturday. Overs.

Other dangers include ANGEL CAPITAL who was close to SEPAL’s time over 1400m last start winning the Autumn; POINT AND SHOOT is coming south of the border and back in distance to try and nick the win from a lovely barrier; And what about SAVAGLEE coming across the ditch trying to become the second Kiwi winner in 3 years when LEGARTO with Michael Dee was on board. Guess who is on the back of this Kiwi invader…???

Nic Ashman Tip:

FEROCE travelled into the race like the winner before condition gave out in the CS Hayes. He was 2nd in the G1 Caulfield Guineas, possibly should've won, and looks set for this. NDOLA was strong through the line in the CS Hayes and has the extra run under the belt. Back them both each-way at double figures and should get a sight.