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Saturday Bets! 2025 Australian Oaks
- Andy G
- 6 days ago
- 5 min read
7 of the last 9 Australian Oaks champions have jumped at $5 or less – has the market got it right again with TREASURETHE MOMENT and LEICA LUCY?
ATC AUSTRALIAN OAKS
2400m – Group 1 – 3YO Fillies Set Weights
Race 6 on the card for The Championships Day 2 is the highly regarded G1 ATC Australian Oaks run over 2400m for the 3YO Fillies under Set Weight conditions of 56kg.
Again, another race steeped in history since it first ran back in 1885 and was won by URALLA, the race is considered by many as the strongest of the Oaks races run across the country. Notable winners include: SURROUND (1977), LIGHT FINGERS (1965), BOUNDING AWAY (1987), TRISCAY (1991), STREAMA (2012) and VERRY ELLEEGANT (2019).
Bart Cummings obtained 7 Oaks victories in his career and sits one ahead of Tommy Smith as Leading Trainer who managed 6 wins. Chris Waller will look to move into third position this Saturday with a win with LEICA LUCY or BELLE DETELLE to give him 5 wins. The Leading Jockey is Roy Higgins who accumulated 6 Oaks victories.
How do Favourites fare in this race?
‘Punters need to go short…’
Over the past three decades, Favourites have had a relatively modest record securing victory in 10 of the last 30 Australian Oaks. However, recent trends show a shift towards success for Favourites with 5 wins in the last 8 years including a particularly dominant run of 4 consecutive wins from 2017 to 2020. This recent success stands in stark contrast to the preceding period between 2007 and 2016 where only one Favourite managed to claim victory highlighting a significant dry spell for those at the top of the market.
When examining odds trends over the last 9 years, only one winner—EL PATRONESS in 2022—saluted at double-figure odds paying $26. In that same timeframe, 7 winners jumped at $5 or less indicating that horses with shorter SPs have had a strong strike rate. Expanding the view to the last 15 years, there have been just 3 winners at double-figure odds while the remaining 12 winners with single-figure odds had an average SP of $4.55. This data reinforces the notion that well-supported runners tend to perform strongly in this race and big upsets are few and far between.
What Barriers are most successful?
‘Middle has the upper hand…’
Historically, middle barriers have proven to be the most successful starting positions with 14 winners emerging from Barriers 5 to 9 since 1995. This pattern has remained relatively consistent over time including in the past decade where 4 winners jumped from those middle gates. However, a subtle shift in barrier success has been observed more recently. 3 of the last 5 winners have started from inside barriers, specifically between Barriers 2 to 4, suggesting a temporary advantage for runners drawn closer to the rail. Yet, in the most recent two editions, the pattern swung back toward wider barriers, with winners coming from Barriers 8 and 11. This variation in barrier position suggests that while middle gates remain historically strong, recent years have seen a more balanced spread of winning positions across the field.
Does it matter where my horse settles?
‘Yep – they’ve liked midfield and off…’
In the past decade, 8 winners have settled in a midfield/off-midfield position, showing a clear pattern of winners settling and finding cover at the 800m before shadowing on-pace horses and running on down the Randwick straight.
Here is the position at the 800m of the last 10 winners:
Nic Ashman provides race previews and tactics for jockeys/trainers in major G1 races. Star jockey Billy Egan recently reached out to Nic asking for his thoughts on the G1 Australian Guineas. Here's what Nic sent to Blly;
Nic's tactical analysis proved spot on and Billy partnered FEROCE to victory in the stallion-making contest. Now, Nic is sharing these G1 previews. The Bet Sheets include Nic's 3 Best Bets for the day with a staking plan that in its first 12 month had 609 bets for +18% Profit On Turnover. The offer wraps up after Day 2 of The Championships. That means if you start this week you get 6 x Track Reports (Syd/Mlb), 6 x Bet Sheets plus a summary in chronological order of all bets and staking plus selections in all 10 races in Sydney and Melbourne every Saturday. It's called the 'Works Burger' package and its for punters that want the lot! Click the box below and enter the coupon code "Slipper25".
Here's what our Bet Sheet looks like;
What kind of Lead-Up form should I look for?
‘Vinery, Adrian Knox – but don’t forget the Kiwis…’
There are two popular lead-up runs used by many winners of the Australian Oaks which are the Vinery Stud Stakes and the Adrian Knox Stakes where in the last 15 years – 10 winners have used either one of these races to set themselves up for Oaks champion status.
The Vinery Stud has been the most popular with 6 Oaks winners being produced from this route since 2010 while the Adrian Knox has produced 4 Oaks winners. Crucially, 9 of the 10 Oaks winners that have come from the Vinery Stud or the Adrian Knox finished in the top four of their respected lead-up race.
The Kiwi invaders have had their share of good fortune in the Oaks as well with 3 winners in the past 9 years. Each of these winners – SOFIA ROSA (2016), BONNEVAL (2017) and PENNYWEKA (2023) – all finished in the quinella of the NZ Oaks the race prior.
An Australian Oaks story?
“The famous defeat…”
When GUST OF WIND won the Oaks in 2015, she handed a horse their final-ever defeat. That horse was to never lose again and would remain undefeated for the next 4 years winning 33 times in a row.
We know the horse.
To hear Nic's tip for the ATC Australian Oaks plus an insight into this weekend's racing at Randwick, click on the latest episode of The Beaten Favourite below.
The numbers?
“Unlucky 2…”
Ever since last September when I began compiling this particular stat of the ‘hoodoo saddlecloth’ that has not won in the past 30 years – I have only been upstaged once which was BRIASA last week in the TJ.
Now this is the big one – let’s see if this really is a hoodoo…
Saddlecloth 2 has not won the Australian Oaks in the past 30 years…again – over to you TREASURE THE MOMENT…
Andy’s Rundown for the ATC Australian Oaks:
I feel when breaking down all the historical stats and engaging with recent form, one has to ask – is this a race between two?
TREASURETHE MOMENT is arguably the best 3YO Filly in the country with a remarkable record and excellent form this prep. In a race where Favourites have dominated in recent years along with the form line of the Vinery Stud as a lead-up – how could you think about taking her on (besides the saddlecloth)? If you are – then the obvious candidate is LEICA LUCY who is looking to continue the supremacy of NZ Oaks winners coming to Randwick and taking the Australian Oaks as well. Has won its last 5 starts; has J-Mac onboard and is in the favourable $4 range – whichever way you go – both have legitimate claims and both will be there in the finish.
Of the others who want to cause the monumental upset – BELLE DETELLE will stake her claims after winning the Adrian Knox last week at Randwick off five and a half weeks break and also DUBAI GOLDRUSH who finished second in the NZ Oaks by 0.4L to LEICA LUCY and is $15. Pretty juicy considering how close she came last time.
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