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MR BRIGHSTIDE is looking to become the 13th favourite in just 16 years to win the G1 Futurity Stakes when he steps out at Caulfield this Saturday.
FUTURITY STAKES
1400m – Group 1 – Weight For Age
The 127th running of the Futurity, one of Victoria’s most prestigious G1 races over 1400m, takes place this Saturday at Caulfield with a prize pool of $750,000.
Hall Of Fame Trainers Lou Robertson and Angus Armanasco have the most wins with 5 each while jockey Roy Higgins wins in a canter with 8 wins – 4 ahead of his nearest rival.
GLADSOME became the first double winner of the Futurity going back-to-back in 1905/06. AJAX became the first triple winner of the event in 1938/39/40 – but that is even extraordinarily surpassed by the great MANIKATO who is the only four-time winner of the race winning in 1979/80/81/83.
Other notable winners include EURYTHMIC (1922), PHAR LAP (1931), SCHILLACI (1993/95), MORE JOYOUS (2010) and last year’s winner MR BRIGHTSIDE (2024).
How do Favourites fare in this race?
‘Very, very, very, very good…’
12 out of the last 15 winners have been Favourites with SPs ranging from $1.45 to $4.80. Only 2 horses with double-digit SPs have managed to win in that time – SIERRA SUE (2022) and SUAVITO (2015). If you outlaid $1500 on the Favourites in the last 15 years of the Futurity – you would have won $3125 pocketing $1625 in profit. Not bad for betting on the punter’s best horse in the race.
What Barriers are most successful?
‘Barriers 4 to 9 is the sweet spot – particularly for a Favourite…’
In recent years, winners have had success jumping from inside gates. However, since 2010, 11 (73%) have used Barriers 4 to 9 to win the Futurity. Moreover, 9 (82%) of the 11 Favourites who have won since 2010 have jumped from Barriers 4 to 9. Only 4 horses in the last 30 years have won from Barrier 10 or wider.
Does it matter where my horse settles?
‘First half only – no coming from the back…’
We have seen a mixed bag in the past decade in terms of where winners have settled. Successful horses have all found themselves in the first half of the field but 50% have landed in the top 4 at the 800m mark before running away from the chasing pack. Here is the position at 800m of the last 10 winners:
MR BRIGHTSIDE 5th; ALLIGATOR BLOOD 2nd; SIERRA SUE 4th; PROBABEEL 6th; STREETS OF AVALON 1st; ALIZEE 6th; BRAVE SMASH 3rd; BLACK HEART BART 5th; TURN ME LOOSE 3rd; SUAVITO 6th.
What kind of Lead-Up form should I look for?
‘There is one winner…the CF Orr…”
The CF Orr has proven in the last two decades to be the most common lead-up for achieving success in the Futurity. 13 of the past 20 winners have contested the CF Orr before venturing back to Caulfield to take out of the Futurity. Out of those 13 winners, 9 placed in the top 3 of the CF Orr.
Delving a little more – of the 12 Favourites who have won in the past 20 years, 8 of them raced in the CF Orr and of those 8 winners – 5 won the CF Orr. The past 3 winners of the CF Orr/Futurity double have been Geldings.
The form line seems to fit the criteria exceptionally well.
Two winners were 1UP after spells – ALLIGATOR BLOOD (2023) and SUAVITO (2015). The 5YO and the 6YO have had greater success over the past decade with 7 wins. Only one 3YO has won in the past 20 years – ALL TOO HARD (2013). The Mares have made their presence known in the past 15 years with 6 wins. In the previous 15 years before 2010, they only accounted for one victory.
What should I be wary of?
‘Saddlecloth 4…’
And for those punters who want to know what the unlucky number is – it’s 4. No horse wearing 4 has tasted victory in the last 30 years. Numbers 1–3, 5–12 all have.
Andy’s Rundown:
All roads lead to MR BRIGHTSIDE. Will look to continue the Favourite’s outstanding record in the past 15 years (80%) of this event; Barrier 11 is just wide of the sweet spot but ALIZEE managed to win from there only in 2019 so it should not be a problem – especially considering how he pulled away from the field with ANOTHER WIL in the CF Orr – the best lead-up to the Futurity. Another Gelding going for the win. Take the OP of $2 and double up. Other contenders include I WISH I WIN who has good 1UP form, but won’t want to find itself too far back at the 800m. PRIVATE LIFE should improve but will need to overcome the 3YO curse to win. Key an eye on PLACE DU CARROUSEL – coming off a Spring prep racing against the country’s best horses – now 1UP; in the right barrier; recent history of Mares winning. Keep close.
Nic Ashman Tip:
Can’t go past MR BRIGHTSIDE as his ratings are superior. But the outside barrier from the 1400m start at Caulfield is a bad place to jump from. For the exotics I’d play TOM KITTEN. His fresh ratings are good and his jockey Ben Melham is riding at 30% of late proving one of the most profitable hoops to follow so far in 2025.
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