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Saturday Bets! 2025 Golden Slipper
- Andy G
- Mar 19
- 6 min read
With Favourites historically experiencing limited success in the Golden Slipper, the open field of this year’s race could see another winner of great value again.
GOLDEN SLIPPER STAKES
1200m – Group 1 – 2YO Set Weights
The world’s richest race for 2YOs with prizemoney of $5 million – the famed Golden Slipper – highlights a bumper day at Rosehill Gardens this Saturday.
Australia’s premier race for 2YOs, the 69th edition of the Slipper headlines one of 5 G1s this weekend at Rosehill on one of the biggest days on the Australian racing calendar. The Slipper is raced over 1200m under set weight conditions with the Fillies receiving a 2kg allowance over the C&G.
The list of winners is prestigious – not only because of their victory in the Slipper, but also the legacy and the success they continued to have after the Slipper. Winners include: TODMAN (1957), SKY HIGH (1960), SWEET EMBRACE (1967), MANIKATO (1978), FLYING SPUR (1995), MISS FINLAND (2006) and PIERRO (2012).
Gai Waterhouse is the clear Leading Trainer who has dominated the Golden Slipper with 8 victories – her first back in 2001 on HA HA. Her father Tommy Smith is second with 6 victories with a remarkable 14 victories in the family. Shane Dye and Ron Quinton share the Leading Jockey post with 4 wins. Tommy Berry sits one back and will look to join them this weekend on QUIETLY ARROGANT.
How do Favourites fare in this race?
‘Consider others in the market…’
The Slipper has not been a happy hunting ground for the Favourites in recent times. Since 2010, the Favourite has only managed 4 wins while even more recently, FARNAN is the only Favourite to be first past the post in the last 9 years. The success rate of Favourites is low historically sitting at 16% since 1995.
One then turns their attention to their rivals – and this is where we can see a pattern. Over the last 15 years, 12 winners have had SPs of $8.50 or less indicating punters have found success backing horses around the second to fourth line of betting. The three double-digit winners in that period actually occurred in the 6 years with SHINZO ($16), FIREBURN ($12) and KIAMICHI ($26).
The takeaway for punters – great success backing horses at the top of the market (but not the very top) – and have the confidence to back outsiders considering recent trends.
What Barriers are most successful?
‘A tale of two…’
The Slipper has thrown up two advantage points when it comes to the barrier draw. Over the past 30 years, Barriers 1 to 3 have had the most winners with 13 (43%) with Barriers 11 to 16 producing 11 (37%) winners.
This has been reinforced again in the past decade with Barriers 1 – 3 bringing home 4 winners while Barriers 11 – 16 have accumulated 5 winners. Recently, Barriers 1 – 3 have won 3 times since 2021.
This intriguing stat not only demonstrates the poor strike rate of middle gate starters (2 wins in the past 15 years), but also the racing pattern of the winners who have either shown great speed from their wide gate or have saved distance holding the rail from an inside gate. More on this shortly.
Does it matter where my horse settles?
‘This depends on the speed map…’
Looking at the last decade’s worth of winners, we see a mixed bag of positions in terms of where our winners have settled coming around the home turn – anywhere from 1st to 13th.
However, delving a little deeper, we can see all 4 of the winners who sat in the top two at the 400m all jumped from wide barriers (11-14) while 5 of the 6 winners who were placed either midfield or off pace all jumped from inside barriers (2-5).
This clearly reveals that leaders and on-pace horses have enjoyed the wider barrier enabling them to get out and across while those happy to settle midfield or worse don’t mind the inside barrier and pinching a run along the fence which we have seen in recent years.
Here is the position at the 400m of the last 10 winners:
LADY OF CAMELOT 5th; SHINZO 7th; FIREBURN 13th; STAY INSIDE 4th; FARNAN 1st; KIAMICHI 1st; ESTIJAAB 1st; SHE WILL REIGN 2nd; CAPITALIST 5th; VANCOUVER 5th.
Nic Ashman provides race previews and tactics for jockeys/trainers in major G1 races. Star jockey Billy Egan recently reached out to Nic asking for his thoughts on the G1 Australian Guineas. Here's what Nic sent privtely to Blly;
Nic's tactical analysis proved spot on and Billy partnered FEROCE to victory in the stallion-making contest. Now, Nic is sharing these G1 previews. For the next 4 weeks you can grab these previews as well as our Trackwalker Info, Bet Sheets + more for just $6/week. The Bet Sheets include Nic's 3 Best Bets for the day with a staking plan that in its first 12 month had 609 bets for +18% Profit On Turnover. The offer starts on Golden Slipper day and wraps up after Day 2 of The Championships. That means you get 8 x Track Reports (Syd/Mlb), 8 x Bet Sheets plus a summary in chronological order of all bets and staking plus selections in all 10 races in Sydney and Melbourne every Saturday. It's called the 'Works Burger' package and its for punters that want the lot! Click the box below and enter the coupon code "Slipper25".
What kind of Lead-Up form should I look for?
‘A lot – as long as they finished in the quinella…’
Amazingly, when analysing the various races used by the last 7 winners during their prep before culminating in Slipper victory – a total of 13 different races were identified indicating many trainers have considered different paths on route to success while also validating the increasing strength of fields and races prior to the Slipper.
Since 2010, 6 winners have used the Todman as a lead-up with 5 winners using the Silver Slipper. The next popular lead-up race has been the Reisling which has produced 4 winners. LADY OF CAMELOT was the first horse since SEPOY in 2011 to win the Golden Slipper after racing in the Blue Diamond earlier in the prep lending support to the argument the contenders coming from south of the border don’t usually fare too well.
The Silver Slipper has the greatest strike rate of winners who have gone on to win the Slipper with 4 (16%) wins from 24 starters (since 1998). This is followed by the Magic Night with 6 (15%) wins from 40 starters overall.
But, here is the kicker…
Since 2014, only 3 Slipper winners finished outside the quinella in any run that preparation.
Out of the 68 winners of the Slipper – 30 have been Fillies.
What should I take note of?
‘Unlucky 9 and 13…’
For those playing the numbers – Saddlecloths 9 and 13 have not won in the past 30 years.
Did you know?
“Just a little bit of family history repeating…”
Tommy Smith held the record for the most runners in a Golden Slipper with 54 – until daughter Gai (along with Adrian Bott) went past him with 55 runners last year.
On the track, SHINZO managed to upstage Mum and Dad in 2023 doing something they were unable to do – win the Golden Slipper. Mother SAMAREADY and Father SNITZEL both started as Favourites in the Slipper in 2012 and 2005 respectively, however, they only managed to finish 3rd and 12th leaving son SHINZO with the honours.
Andy’s Rundown for the Golden Slipper Stakes:
In what shapes up to be a very open Slipper, pinpointing a pattern to follow is tricky. Historically, we should stay away from the favourite, however, there is a chance WODETON might not be favourite at the jump.
The one stat that really jumps out at me is the quinella form in lead-up races from the last 11 years. So looking for a horse who has shown good form this prep and is away from the middle gates lands me on RIVELLINO who is 3/3 this prep and will get a lovely run along the rail like many recent winners. Sitting in the fourth line of betting at $9 which we know has provided plenty of winning value for punters since 2010 makes me think he could be the one.
The other chances all seem to have inside gates as well – TEMPTED in 1 could be favourite by Saturday afternoon, WODETON in 2 has no excuses now and could be ready to silence the doubters and WEST OF SWINDON could be the joker in the pack at the odds jumping from 3. Keep an eye on SKYHOOK after an impressive Pago Pago win last week and WITHIN THE LAW might enjoy the wide gate.
Nic Ashman Tip:
Grab his full analysis of the 2025Golden Slipper by clicking the link below.
