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Saturday Bets! The Galaxy & William Reid
- Andy G
- Mar 19
- 5 min read
It’s not just about the Slipper for the sprinters this weekend with the G1 Galaxy at Rosehill and the G1 William Reid at Moonee Valley giving the older horses a chance to get a slice of the $1 million in prize money.
THE GALAXY – 1100m – Group 1 – Handicap
WILLIAM REID STAKES – 1200m – Group 1 – Weight For Age
Saturday will see two more G1 sprints take place with the running of The Galaxy over 1100m as well as the last G1 sprint of the Victorian Autumn – the William Reid over 1200m.
The Galaxy is set for its 54th edition and in its relatively short history has seen some famous names win this race such as LUSKIN STAR (1978), SCHILLACI (1992) and NATURE STRIP (2019). Joe Pride is the Leading Trainer with 3 wins while the Leading Jockey is split three ways – Peter Cook, Tim Clark and Kerrin McEvoy all on 3 victories.
The William Reid was first run in 1925 and in its time, has obtained an esteemed winners list that includes TRANQUIL STAR (1946), MANIKATO (1979/80/81/82/83) and BLACK CAVIAR (2011/13). Again, 3 riders have the most wins with Roy Higgins, Jack Purtell and Gary Willets all with 5 wins each while Bob Hoysted has 6 wins as Leading Trainer.
How do Favourites fare in this race?
‘Not too well – so search for value…’
Although The Galaxy has seen 3 Favourites win in the past 8 years, usually it’s not a happy place for them with only 5 Favourites winning since 1995 including a 17-year patch between 2004 and 2016 where no Favourite won The Galaxy.
The past 15 years has seen incredible value for winners with 10 champions jumping with SPs of $10 or more indicating that this race is open to outsiders who have attained solid success.
The William Reid is somewhat more favourable to Favourites compared to The Galaxy. In the past 6 years, 3 Favourites have been first past the post while 10 Favourites have won since 1995.
Again, conversely to The Galaxy, the SPs of winning William Reid horses are found to be more in the single-digit range with 10 out of the last 14 winners having SPs of $10 or less suggesting that the William Reid has seen more predictability in the market when backing winners.
What Barriers are most successful?
‘Even Steven…’
Historically, the distribution of winners in the last 30 years of The Galaxy has been fairly even across different barrier positions with Barriers 1 – 4, 5 – 9 and 10 – 15 each yielding 10 wins each. However, in more recent years, there has been a trend for success closer to the rail with Barriers 2 – 5 securing 4 of the past 5 winners.
The William Reid Stakes has also seen an even split in gate success with both Barriers 1 – 5 and 6 – 10 each producing 15 winners each since 1995. However, since 2015, there has been a noticeable shift towards the wider barriers – specifically Barriers 7 – 10 where 6 winners have won in the past decade.
Does it matter where my horse settles?
‘Nice to be forward of midfield…’
The Galaxy winners have predominantly found themselves on pace or in midfield when making the turn for home with 8 of the 10 winners settling 3rd to 7th.
Here is the position at the 400m of the last 10 winners of The Galaxy:
The story is the same for the William Reid again with 8 from 10 winners settling on pace or midfield before swinging out and coming down the short Valley straight.
Here is the position at the 400m of the last 10 winners of the William Reid:
Nic Ashman provides race previews and tactics for jockeys/trainers in major G1 races. Star jockey Billy Egan recently reached out to Nic asking for his thoughts on the G1 Australian Guineas. Here's what Nic sent privately to Blly;
Nic's tactical analysis proved spot on and Billy partnered FEROCE to victory in the stallion-making contest. Now, Nic is sharing these G1 previews. For the next 4 weeks you can grab these previews as well as our Trackwalker Info, Bet Sheets + more for just $6/week. The Bet Sheets include Nic's 3 Best Bets for the day with a staking plan that in its first 12 months had 609 bets for +18% Profit On Turnover. The offer starts on Golden Slipper Day and wraps up after Day 2 of The Championships. That means you get 8 x Track Reports (Syd/Mlb), 8 x Bet Sheets plus a summary in chronological order of all bets and staking plus selections in all 10 races in Sydney and Melbourne every Saturday. It's called the 'Works Burger' package and it's for punters that want the lot! Click the box below and enter the coupon code "Slipper25".
What kind of Lead-Up form should I look for?
‘Mixed for The Galaxy – but straightforward for the Reid…’
A mixed bag of races has been used by recent winners of The Galaxy in their prep before going on to win. The most common race has been the Challenge Stakes with 3 winners using this race in the past 4 years, however, many champions have raced interstate – most notably in the Oakleigh Plate before coming north. 3 winners in the past decade have been 1UP.
Light-weight horses have enjoyed success in The Galaxy with the last 3 champions winning at 53kg or lower and 8 of the last 9 winners winning at 55kg or less. Only 3 horses in the past 15 years have won carrying 55.5kg or more. Mares have won 6 times in the past decade. The previous female who won before 2015 was LA BARAKA in 1998. Only one 3YO has won in the past 14 years.
In regards to the William Reid, the Newmarket has been the most popular lead-up race with 7 winners racing in the G1 at Flemington before the William Reid. Furthermore, the Lightning Stakes was used by 6 winners earlier in their prep. 5 of the previous 7 winners were 3UP going into the William Reid.
3 of the last 4 winners of the William Reid have been 4YOs with a 3YO not winning since 2020 and a 6YO not winning since 2016. The last 3 winners have also been Mares continuing their great strike rate with 17 from the past 33 wins.
To hear Nic's tips for The Galaxy and the William Reid Stakes plus an insight into this weekend's racing at Rosehill and Moonee Valley, click on the latest episode of The Beaten Favourite below.
Do you remember?
“S66 and BC…”
2022 – Shelby Sixtysix – running his 8th race in just 9 weeks – and wins at $7 on a H9 to the amazement and delight of the Rosehill crowd.
2013 – Black Caviar wins her second William Reid at $1.05 in her final race in Victoria before heading to Sydney to finish her career – by winning the TJ Smith.
Andy’s Rundown for both The Galaxy and William Reid:
Looking for a non-Favourite in The Galaxy with a preferable inside barrier with plenty of value – don’t mind I AM ME. Jumping from Barrier 1 and I’m loving the $13 for another Mare winning bar the weight. COMMEMORATIVE may spring a surprise with 51kg on her back from Barrier 2; PRIVATE HARRY has shown he is a deserved Favourite and will be in the mix while GROWING EMPIRE will be up there too.
SHE’S BULLETPROOF looks set in the William Reid – Barrier 8; 4YO; Mare; at $5.50 – all stats point towards her. BENEDETTA again at single-digit odds with the Lighting/Newmarket lead-up like previous winners; JIMMYSSTAR will finish well late and how about REY MAGNERIO showing improvement at odds.
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