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Saturday Bets! 2025 Rosehill Guineas
- Andy G
- Mar 19
- 5 min read
With 94% of winners in the last 18 years winning with a SP of $8 or less, the bookies are starting to shiver as punters look to win big again in the Rosehill Guineas.
ROSEHILL GUINEAS
2000m – Group 1 – 3YO Set Weights
The 115th edition of the Rosehill Guineas is one of two 2000m G1s taking place this Saturday at Rosehill with a prize pool of $750,000.
A race for the 3YOs under set weight conditions, the traditional lead-up to the ATC Australian Derby gives many contenders a final hit out against quality opposition in a G1 environment before heading to Randwick in two weeks.
The race has been won by some of the greats in history – PHAR LAP (1929), TULLOCH (1957), KINGSTON TOWN (1980), OCTAGONAL (1996) and IT’S A DUNDEEL (2013). There have been 22 winners of the Guineas/Derby double with 4 in the last 20 years – EREMEIN (2005), IT’S A DUNDEEL (2013), CRITERION (2014) and RIFF ROCKET (2024).
Tommy Smith is lightyears ahead of any other Trainer with 9 victories in the Rosehill Guineas while there are half a dozen Jockeys who share top spot on the podium with 4 wins – the list includes Ted Bartle, Billy Cook, Mick Dittman, John Marshall, Athol Mulley and Nash Rawiller.
How do Favourites fare in this race?
‘The bookies tend to pay out a lot…’
Favourites have an outstanding record in the Guineas. In the last 4 years, 3 winners have won as Favourites. In the last 9 years, 6 winners have been Favourites. Even going back 14 years, 8 winners have been Favourites. If the average punter had placed $100 on every Favourite over the last 9 years, they would have made a whopping profit of $660 demonstrating the consistent success of Favourites.
With this in mind, 17 of the last 18 winners have had a SP of $8 or less. In fact, the last 10 winners since 2015 have had a SP of $7 or less. The only winner of the Guineas in the last 18 years to win at double-digit odds was CRITERION in 2014 with a SP of $14. Bookies are sweating.
What Barriers are most successful?
‘Exhibiting 5 to 8…’
There is a massive sweet spot for the winning gates in the form of Barriers 5 – 8. In the last 5 years, horses jumping from these barriers have a 100% strike rate. The trend has continued to be historically accurate with a 60% strike rate in the past decade; 53% in the past 15 years and 50% since 1995.
The last horse to win wider from Barrier 8 was CRITERION in 2014 jumping from Barrier 12. The time before that was HE’S NO PIE EATER in 2007. This highlights a significant pattern historically in this race where jumping from a middle gate has been ideal for winning.
Does it matter where my horse settles?
‘Not really. History shows it’s up to the horse…’
As you can see below, a bit of an assortment in terms of settling positions for our last 10 winners. 6 have gone on to win from settling midfield or off-pace, however, each winner has managed to win from a variety of positions.
Here is the position at the 800m of the last 10 winners:
Nic Ashman provides race previews and tactics for jockeys/trainers in major G1 races. Star jockey Billy Egan recently reached out to Nic asking for his thoughts on the G1 Australian Guineas. Here's what Nic sent privately to Blly;
Nic's tactical analysis proved spot on and Billy partnered FEROCE to victory in the stallion-making contest. Now, Nic is sharing these G1 previews. For the next 4 weeks you can grab these previews as well as our Trackwalker Info, Bet Sheets + more for just $6/week. The Bet Sheets include Nic's 3 Best Bets for the day with a staking plan that in its first 12 months had 609 bets for +18% Profit On Turnover. The offer starts on Golden Slipper Day and wraps up after Day 2 of The Championships. That means you get 8 x Track Reports (Syd/Mlb), 8 x Bet Sheets plus a summary in chronological order of all bets and staking plus selections in all 10 races in Sydney and Melbourne every Saturday. It's called the 'Works Burger' package and it's for punters that want the lot! Click the box below and enter the coupon code "Slipper25".
What kind of Lead-Up form should I look for?
‘From one Guineas to another...’
6 of the last 7 winners have used the Randwick Guineas as lead-up to the Rosehill Guineas with 4 of those winners finishing in the quinella of the Randwick Guineas indicating hot form coming in. Additionally, 11 of the past 15 winners used the Randwick Guineas as a lead-up along with 22 winners in the last three decades.
We have had some NZ Derby horses come across and have won 3 times in the past 15 years – GINGERNUTS (2017), VOLKSTOK’N’BARRELL (2015) and JIMMY CHOUX (2011). All three finished in the quinella in the NZ Derby.
To hear Nic's tip for the Rosehill Guineas plus an insight into this weekend's racing at Rosehill and Moonee Valley, click on the latest episode of The Beaten Favourite below.
What should I take note of?
‘1, 2, or 3…’
Saddlecloths 1, 2 or 3 have won the last 6 Rosehill Guineas.
Did you know?
“Fillies striking at 7%…”
Only 8 Fillies have won the Rosehill Guineas – the last was RIVERINA CHARM in 1989. Having said that, this is largely due to most saving themselves for the Vinery Stud Stakes a week later.
Andy’s Rundown for the Rosehill Guineas:
The two major historical stats that stick out to me are the success of the Favourites and the sweet spot of middle gates – which steers me into the path of BROADSIDING. A clear Favourite and although jumping from Barrier 9 – it’s just outside the sweet spot of 5-8. The other stat that really jumps out is – the last 3 winners who used the Randwick Guineas as a lead-up (LINDERMANN, ANAMOE, MO’UNGA) all finished 2nd in that race – guess who finished 2nd in this year’s edition? Primed. Did I mention Saddlecloth 1 too…
GOLDRUSH GURU was mega in the Spring and seems to be building nicely this prep – but is this his Grand Final in his first run in Sydney this Autumn? SWIFTFALCON is on the other side of the sweet spot – but is getting closer to BROADSIDING every run. Could this be the day? AELIANA to round out the top four from an inside gate and top up the wallet for the Workburgerians.
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