.png)
With 8 winners in the last decade having a SP of $4.60 or less, the Magic Night Stakes seems to be a great race for the punters – and not so much for the bookies.
MAGIC NIGHT STAKES
1200m – Group 3 – 2YO Fillies Set Weights
The last option for the Fillies to make the Slipper the following week is the G3 Magic Night Stakes also taking place this Saturday at Rosehill with all participants carrying the required 55.5kg.
Commencing a few years before the Pago Pago in 1975, the Magic Night allows the Girls to seize one last place in the Golden Slipper against their own gender. Like the Pago Pago, the total prize pool is $250,000.
There have been more Fillies doing the Magic Night/Golden Slipper double than the C&G doing the Pago Pago/Golden Slipper double with 6 winners – TOY STORY (1975), CENTURY MISS (1979), DARK ECLIPSE (1980), BOUNDING AWAY (1986), BINT MARSCAY (1993) and KIAMICHI (2019).
The Leading Trainer of the Magic Night is Tommy Smith with 6 victories and light years ahead of the rest. Leading Jockey is split between two with Jim Cassidy and Mick Dittman securing 4 victories each. James McDonald can join them with victory on Saturday.
How do Favourites fare in this race?
‘Consider anything short in the market…’
Recently, the performance of Favourites in the Magic Night has been conclusive with 3 winners since 2021 as well as 5 in the last 9 years. Prior to this trend however, for a stretch of 20 years, no Favourite had managed to secure a win. This contrast not only highlights a notable change in the dominance of Favourites, but also the rise in their rivals as demonstrated in the SPs below.
The SPs of the winners have provided some fascinating and significant insights into these recent trends. In the last 4 years, all the winners have had a SP of $4.20 or less. This is enhanced when looking back to 2010 where 13 winners have had a SP of $8 or less. Even more astonishingly – 8 of the last 10 winners had SPs of $4.60 or less lending support to the notion that the more heavily backed horses in the market are satisfying more punter’s wallets. Bookies are sweating already.
What Barriers are most successful?
‘Surprisingly wide of the middle…’
Over the past 30 years, Barriers 4 to 8 have been the most successful producing 15 winners during this period. Additionally, Barriers 10 and wider also enjoyed 9 victories in this timeframe indicating winners can be found out wide.
This development in winning wider than a middle gate has become more pronounced recently. In fact, 8 of the last 15 winners have jumped from Barriers 8 to 11 illustrating that horses starting from the wider gates have increasingly found success. This shift is further highlighted with 6 winners emerging in the past decade from these same barriers revealing jumping wide is not disadvantageous.
Does it matter where my horse settles?
‘Got to be up there somewhere…’
Just as definitive as the C&Gs in the Pago Pago, a clear blueprint for success in the Magic Night is leading the pack. 6 of the past 10 winners have found themselves in the top two at the turn for home. A couple have come from midfield – but only one has made her way from the back.
Here is the position at the 400m of the last 10 winners:
DRIFTING 2nd; STEEL CITY 1st; SHE’S EXTREME 6th; ARCADED 2nd; THERMOSPHERE 10th; KIAMICHI 1st; SUNLIGHT 1st; TULIP 6th; CALLIOPE 6th; SPEAK FONDLY 1st.
What kind of Lead-Up form should I look for?
‘Sweet Embrace – but winners have come from the South too…’
The Magic Night has proven to be a mixed bag in terms of lead-up races. The most successful approach has been horses coming up from Victoria after racing in either the Blue Diamond Stakes, the Prelude, or the Preview in the hope of obtaining one of the final slots for the Slipper. 4 winners in the past decade have taken this route.
A popular local lead-up race has been the Sweet Embrace Stakes which sees a few horses in this field come out of that race. In the past decade, 3 winners have raced in the Sweet Embrace before going on to win the Magic Night.
For those punters interested in backing one of the two 1UPs – no horse has won the Magic Night 1UP since SHAMEKHA in 2003. The last horse to win 2UP was KIAMICHI in 2019. There are four in this field who are trying to break that duck as well.
What should I take note of?
‘Good strike rates for Cummings and J-Mac…’
James Cummings is going for his 4th Magic Night in 7 years with CUSTOM; J-Mac looking for his 4th win too in 9 years on board ARTISTIC VENTURE.
Also, Numbers 1 to 8 are the only winning numbers of the Magic Night in the past 30 years.
GRAB YOUR FREE 7-DAY TRIAL OF THE TBF WORKS BURGER by clicking on the image BELOW
Andy’s Rundown for the Magic Night Stakes:
ARTISTIC VENTURE looks well set here after coming home strongly in the Sweet Embrace a couple of weeks back. We know the wider barriers have been winnable barriers in recent years and with J-Mac on board and gunning for a fourth Magic Night, it should not be a problem. Moreover, the OP was below the $4.60 – and we know how successful the short-priced horses are in the Magic Night.
STRADA VARENNA should be able to get forward and won 1UP so needs to be considered heavily by punters. Maybe AUTUMN BLONDE can spring a surprise at the odds after being on pace with the leaders in the Sweet Embrace. I’ll play POLISH PLAYGIRL too. Solidarity.
Nic Ashman Tip: No.10 CUSTOM $41
Hate the race but this filly has had 2x1200m runs and should be ready for a fast run race. She was placed in a high rating Maiden at Canterbury last start. Each-way.
Comments