Saturday Bets! 2025 Newmarket Handicap

With no Favourite winning since HAY LIST in 2012, can we expect another ROCH ‘N’ HORSE fairytale in this year’s Newmarket Handicap?

NEWMARKET HANDICAP

1200m – Group 1 – Handicap

The third leg of the Autumn sprint series over the Melbourne Carnival – the Newmarket Handicap – culminates at Flemington this Saturday.

Following on from the Lightning Stakes and the Oakleigh Plate, the 152nd running of the Newmarket will see 15 horses searching for glory and trying to get a chunk of the $1.5 million purse in arguably one of the world’s best sprint handicap G1s in the world.

The Newmarket is synonymous with greats of the sport with BLACK CAVIAR (2011), AJAX (1938), TAKEOVER TARGET (2006), SCHILLACI (1992), BLACK ONYX (1970), WAKEFUL (1901) and MAID OF AVENEL (1874) all winners since its inception in 1874.

Legendary Trainer Bart Cummings leads the winners list with 8 victories in the Newmarket while 5 jockeys share top spot with 3 victories each – Harold Badger, Athol Mulley, Craig Newitt, Damian Oliver and Harry White.

How do Favourites fare in this race?

‘Look for value…’

The last Favourite we saw win a Newmarket was HAY LIST in 2012 – it’s been 12 years since the shortest-priced horse has been first past the post. In the 9 years prior to 2012, Favourites dominated with 5 wins, however, across the last 30 years, the results swing back again to disappointing with Favourites having 7 (23%) wins since 1995.

We have seen some great value for the winners in the past 12 years with the lowest SP winning at $5.50. On top of that, 7 of those 12 winners had SPs of $11 or more with ROCH ‘N’ HORSE romping home in 2022 at $101. 

What Barriers are most successful?

‘Hope to get a middle draw…’

Jumping out of a gate and coming down the Flemington straight is a different proposition compared to many other courses, however, there is a pattern evident for many winners of the Newmarket.

In the last 30 years, 14 (47%) of winners have jumped from Barriers 4 to 9 exhibiting the sweet spot as a middle gate. This pattern is relevant in the last decade where similarly Barriers 3 – 8 have produced 8 (80%) of Newmarket winners while in the last 6 years, horses jumping from the same barriers have won 5 times.

Favourites have had better luck jumping wider than the sweet spot. 4 of the 7 Favourites who have won since 1995 have jumped from Barrier 9 or wider. No horse has won from Barrier 1 in this time as well.

Does it matter where my horse settles?

‘Yes – on speed…’

Over the last decade, the winners have found themselves very much on pace as they come down the Flemington straight. 8 of the last 10 winners have been positioned inside the top 3 at the 400m mark demonstrating you want to be up on speed or even leading coming down a straight track rather than a course with a home bend.

Here is the position at 400m of the last 10 winners:

CYLINDER 3rd; IN SECRET 8th; ROCH ‘N’ HORSE 3rd; ZOUTORI 3rd; BIVOUAC 2nd; SUNLIGHT 1st; REDKIRK WARRIOR (2018) 1st; (2017) 1st; THE QUARTERBACK 9th; BRAZEN BEAU 3rd.

What kind of Lead-Up form should I look for?

‘Lightning or Oakleigh, but necessarily both…’

Although being the last leg of the Melbourne Carnival sprints, no winner of the Newmarket has raced in both the Lightning and the Oakleigh in 15 years. In that time, most winners have predominantly used either the Lightning (7 winners) or the Oakleigh (4 winners) to then win the Newmarket.

Historically, the winners of the Lightning have a better strike rate than those of the Oakleigh. 50 winners of the Lightning have contested the Newmarket for 14 (28%) wins with 21 (42%) unplaced. 106 Oakleigh winners have contested the Newmarket for only 10 (9%) wins with 70 (66%) unplaced.

The record for 1UP horses in the past 25 years is not pretty viewing either with only 1 (2%) win from 54 starters. 48 (89%) were unplaced. That one winner – REDKIRK WARRIOR in 2017 – was the first 1UP winner in 100 years.

Being a handicap, we have seen a pattern of success towards contenders on the lighter end of the scale. 7 winners in the last decade have carried 52.5kg or less. This data is supported by the statistic that from the last 64 starters carrying 57kg or more in the Newmarket, only 7 (11%) have won and 45 (70%) have been unplaced. When looking at those winners carrying 57kg or more (BLACK CAVIAR, HAY LIST, REDKIRK WARRIOR, TAKEOVER TARGET) – it takes a very special horse to carry that weight.

There has been a variety of different ages that have won the Newmarket, however, the last two winners have been 3YOs with this trend continuing further back with 4 of the last 6 winners 3YO. Since 1998, 3YOs have won 13 (48%) times.

Remembering the 2023 Newmarket

‘Dean Holland last minute win…’

The 2023 Newmarket Handicap will always live in the memories of punters and racegoers for a long time after the unbelievable win of Dean Holland onboard IN SECRET. Called in virtually last minute after Jamie Kah had sustained injuries in a nasty fall in the VRC Sires Produce earlier in the card, Holland jumped on board IN SECRET and rode her to victory in remarkable circumstances.

Weeks later, Holland was to lose his life from a race fall of his own at Donald. I don’t think many will forget the sheer jubilation Holland expressed when speaking to journos after the Newmarket. A reaction that is now synonymous with this race.

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 Andy’s Rundown for the Newmarket Handicap:

In such an impressive field, one must consider many factors in finding the winner. The yuck luck of Favourites can’t be ignored as well as the sweet spot on the barriers – and I’m looking for a 3YO to continue their impressive results in the race. That lands me on GROWING EMPIRE – did run in the Lightning but can forgive due to distance and conditions; a 3YO jumping from Barrier 5 with a nice OP. 2/2 2UP and always placed over the distance. All sets up well for the second favourite.

Others to watch out for are JOLIESTAR who has a good barrier and is priced with value; STRETAN ANGEL who won the Lightning and again has a good barrier; also keep an eye on HEADWALL who could spring a surprise with 52.5kg jumping from Barrier 3 and will be on pace following the other good horses around him.

Nic Ashman Tip:

Hard to go past GROWING EMPIRE, who started $3.80 in the G1 Lightning Stakes before failing to handle the Soft 7 conditions. His peak rating came over 1200m at Flemington on a Good 3 track and we expect it to get that dry on Saturday afternoon. He's no good thing but at $7 worthy of play. OSTRAKA's sectionals suggest he might be a good straight horse and we're getting $23. There's no way I can let BUENOS NOCHES go around with me being on. He's having his first run for Ciaron Maher and while he prefers wet ground, he's got a fantastic straight-track record and is $19.