Saturday Bets! 2025 Oakleigh Plate

Since FASTNET ROCK's victory in 2005 just three favourites have won the Oakleigh Plate and yet again the Group 1 feature looks primed for a rough result at Caulfield this Saturday .

OAKLEIGH PLATE

1100m – Group 1 – Handicap

Another esteemed G1 raced in Victoria from the late 1800’s, the Oakleigh Plate over 1100m completes the final of three G1 races at Caulfield this Saturday.

The Oakleigh Plate is a race that has enjoyed a wide variety of winners. Since its inception 146 years ago, there have been only two two-time winners - AURIE’S STAR (1937/39) and back-to-back winner DUAL CHOICE (1971/72) which is a testament to how difficult the race is to win on multiple occasions due to the quality it attracts.

This trend continues with two Leading Trainers Tom Payten and Tommy Smith on 4 wins – and four more trainers on 3 wins. The Jockeys is even more of an assortment with Bill Duncan, Roy Higgins, Noel McGrowdie and Harry White on top with 3 wins. There are 18 jockeys with 2 wins.

Winners include greats such as WAKEFUL (1901), SAN DOMENICO (1949) and SNITZEL (2008).

How do Favourites fare in this race?

‘It’s not the best being the shortest in the market…’

Favourites have not enjoyed much success in the Oakleigh Plate with only 2 out of the previous 8 winners starting on the top line of the market. History continues this story with only 8 Favourites winning since 1995 – a strike rate of 27%. Punters looking for value have been given a better chance of success with 9 of the last 15 winners having a SP of $10 or more. Advantage = the Bookies.

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What Barriers are most successful?

‘Recently inside…historically outside…’

The pattern to identifying the right gate is tricky. 4 of the last 5 winners have jumped from Barriers 2 – 5 supporting the notion that you want to settle in the top 3 as discussed below. Intriguingly however, 4 of the previous 6 winners from 2020 left from Barriers 14 or 15 demonstrating it is possible to win from out wide. Going back over the past 31 winners, 13 (42%) have jumped from Barriers 10 to 15 while only 7 (22%) have jumped from Barriers 1 to 4. Does recent or historical form matter more?

Does it matter where my horse settles?

‘Want to be top three coming around the bend…’

Over the past decade, 7 winners have found themselves positioned in the top 3 at the turn for home once again proving the importance for winners to be on pace rather than off. 2 winners were placed midfield at the turn while 2 winners came from the back (Note – there have been 11 winners with a dead heat in 2021).

Here is the position at the 400m of the last 11 winners:

QUEMAN 2nd; UNCOMMON JAMES 3rd; MARABI 2nd; PORTLAND SKY 2nd; CELEBRITY QUEEN 5th; PIPPIE 1st; BOOKER 10th; RUSSIAN REVOLUTION 2nd; SHEIDEL 1st; FLAMBERGE 5th; SHAMAL WIND 12th.

What kind of Lead-Up form should I look for?

‘Mmm…that depends on what road you want to take…’

Again, a pattern in deciphering common or successful lead-up form proves problematic. The last 4 winners have all had at least one run under the belt before challenging for the Oakleigh. However, the previous 6 winners before all were 1UP. It’s apparent some trainers have sought a lead-up run while others have chucked them in fresh and both ways have achieved favourable outcomes.

The most popular lead-up in the last two decades has been the Black Caviar Lightning Stakes with 7 winners – but it is inconsequential in 2025 with no horses backing up. The Rubiton Stakes seems the best guide with a few horses coming out of that race. The Oakleigh has had 3 winners who raced in the Rubiton since 2005. The last horse to win the Rubiton/Oakleigh double was LANKAN RUPEE in 2014.

Does weight play a factor?

‘Maybe this is where the answer lies…’

There has been an even spread of weighted horses winning over the last 20 years ranging from 50kg to 58kg. Despite this, the last 7 winners have carried 54kg or less. Of those 7 winners, 6 were either a 4YO or a 5YO. So a pattern here has become clear in recent times. Only 2 3YO have won in the last 15 years.

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Who are the Leading Trainers and Jockeys?

‘Someone different every single year…’

Since 2007, there have been 19 different jockeys who have been first past the post in the Oakleigh. It’s the same with the trainers – 19 different stables, however David Hayes did win it twice in that time – once by himself in 2011 before joining forces with nephew Tom Dabernig in 2017.

Andy’s Rundown for the Oakleigh Plate:

Due to the unpredictable nature of what the Oakleigh presents statistically, finding a key stat again proves tricky. Ultimately, I think the poor strike rate of Favourites and the success and value double-digit horses provide help me land on JIMMYSSTAR. Ticks many boxes at $10 including Barrier 14, 54.5kg, 5YO and a jockey who is looking to win his first Oakleigh. 1UP was used successfully by winners between 2016-21 so track, distance and 1UP form – it’s tick, tick, tick for me. ARABIAN SUMMER has Barrier 15 next to JIMMYSSTAR and also won last start over the distance and carries only 50kg. REY MAGNERIO won the Rubiton last start and can’t be ignored. I AM ME is another with great 1UP form and superb over the distance – can’t ignore.

Nic Ashman Tip:

ESTRIELLA gave REY MAGNERIO 6kg and beat him over 1000m here last spring. But the key difference is that day the track was wet and REY got held up. He's a far better horse on top of the ground and is better suited to 1100m so we expect that margin to diminish significantly. Given he's double her price, I'd think at $10, he is worthy of a bet. Nash Rawiller is in town for one ride, I AM ME, and from his last 50 rides at Caulfield he's struck at 28%, better than and jockey heading to the meeting. OSTRAKA ran off the charts late splits when resuming last prep, big smoky. Good luck!