Saturday Bets! 2025 Pago Pago Stakes

On-speed horses have had great success in the past decade as the Boys try one last time to make the world’s richest 2YO race next week at Rosehill.

PAGO PAGO STAKES

1200m – Group 3 – 2YO C&G Set Weights

One of the final chances to sneak into next week’s Golden Slipper is the G3 Pago Pago Stakes run this Saturday at Rosehill for the Colts and Geldings (C&G) all carrying 55.5kg.

First run in 1978, the Pago Pago represents a final opportunity to claim a spot in the Slipper in the second week of the Autumn Carnival. The Pago Pago carries prize money of $250,000 in total.

There have been four horses who have done the Pago Pago/Golden Slipper double – INSPIRED (1984), RORY’S JESTER (1985), STRATUM (2005) and SHINZO (2003). Other notable winners of the Pago Pago include SHOGUN LODGE (1999), ENCOUNTER (1997) and ALL TOO HARD (2012).

John Hawkes is the Leading Trainer of the Pago Pago with 5 wins. Darren Beadman has the most victories and is the Leading Jockey with 6 Pago Pago wins.

How do Favourites fare in this race?

‘Love the top line in the market…until recently…’

Since 1995, Favourites have struck at an impressive strike rate with 13 (43%) winners recorded in this period. This pattern has remained in recent years with Favourites securing 7 victories in the past 16 years. However, it is important to note that despite this overall success, there has been a noticeable shift in this trend in the last 5 years where no Favourite has managed to win.

Due to the historical success of Favourites, there has been limited value when backing the winners with only 5 horses in 30 years winning with a SP of $10 or more. The largest-priced winner in the last 30 years occurred in 2024 when DUBLIN DOWN won at $20.

Winners in this race have generally been concentrated towards the top of the market with a clear trend favouring shorter-priced horses. In the past decade, 8 winners have had a SP of $9.50 or less with this inclination continuing over the past 16 years during which 14 winners have secured victories at single-digit odds. The consistency of these results highlights a strong preference for horses with lower odds, making it a race where the top contenders typically outperform the long shots.

What Barriers are most successful?

‘Exhibiting the sweet spot…3 to 6…’

Barriers 3 to 6 have proven to be the sweet spot in this race with a notable 16 (53%) winners emerging from these gates since 1995. This trend has remained consistent throughout the years with 8 of the past 15 winners jumping from this sweet spot and continuing with 5 winners in the past decade and again with 3 winners in the past 5 years, further emphasising its importance.

This stat is further consolidated with the winner of this race never outside of the sweet spot in over a 3 year period. Essentially, the winner has always jumped between Barriers 3 to 6 at least once, twice or three times every three years. Illogically, Barrier 5 is notably absent from the list of successful starting gates with no winner jumping from Barrier 5 in 30 years – a discrepancy that defies the expected pattern.

Saturday Bets! 2025 Coolmore Classic

Does it matter where my horse settles?

‘Got to be up there somewhere…’

The clear advantage for a settling position is clearly on speed with an emphatic 9 of the last 10 winners finding themselves positioned in the top four at the turn for home. Moreover, 6 of those winners settled in the top two. SHINZO was the anomaly coming around the turn remarkably in 8th before running them down.

Here is the position at 400m of the last 10 winners:

DUBLIN DOWN 1st; SHINZO 8th; RISE OF THE MASSES 1st; SHAQUERO 4th; PRAGUE 2nd; COSMIC FORCE 3rd; WRITTEN BY 1st; SINGLE BULLET 2nd; SOUCHEZ 1st; TARQUIN 4th.

Hook into the podcast below for Nic Ashman's Longshot of the day, which comes up in the Pago Pago Stakes

What kind of Lead-Up form should I look for?

‘The Skyline stands out…’

The most popular lead-up race for the Pago Pago has been the G2 Skyline Stakes with 7 winners in the past decade using this race earlier in their prep.

Another common lead-up race of late has been the G3 Canonbury Stakes which has seen 2 of the last 5 winners of the Pago Pago use it earlier in their prep. Additionally, only 2 winners in the past decade of the Pago Pago were invaders from down south after competing in the Blue Diamond Stakes in their last start.

Since 2015, 8 winners of the Pago Pago were either 2UP or 3UP in their campaigns demonstrating a significant portion of those attempting to make the Slipper field have had numerous runs under their belt in building towards the Pago Pago and potential Golden Slipper.

What should I take note of?

‘Saddlecloths 1 and 2 – so, so successful…’

Saddlecloths 1 and 2 have been on a hot streak in the Pago Pago producing a combined total of 16 winners since 1995. Of these, 7 winners have worn 1 or 2 in the last decade. In stark contrast, Saddlecloth 9 has failed to secure a single win in the same 30-year period.

TBF Trivia

‘Who was Pago Pago?’

Pago Pago was from South Australia and was the first interstate-trained winner of the Golden Slipper when first past the post in 1963.

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Andy’s Rundown for the Pago Pago Stakes:

WEST OF SWINDON seems to fit the historical profile being Favourite; jumping from Barrier 4 and of course Saddlecloth 1 – but SKYHOOK also looks well placed being on the second line in the market after finishing second in the Skyline – he will have to overcome the Barrier 5 curse however. COMEDY should firm at his OP and may be in single-digits before the red light on Saturday and will try and follow in the footsteps of previous winners PRAGUE (2020) and SHAQUERO (2021) who both finished 6th (like COMEDY) in the Skyline before going on to win the Pago Pago.