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Saturday Bets! 2025 Queen Elizabeth Stakes
- Andy G
- Apr 9
- 6 min read
With Favourites and low SPs dominating the Queen Elizabeth Stakes in recent years – will the 2025 edition be a shootout between VIA SISTINA and DUBAI HONOUR? Or will we get our second long shot in the last decade?
QUEEN ELIZABETH STAKES
2000m – Group 1 – Weight For Age
The feature race of Day 2 of The Championships is the Queen Elizabeth Stakes raced over 2000m under Weight For Age conditions with prizemoney of $5 million in total.
The 72nd edition of the Queen Elizabeth will again bring together some of the best horses from both at home and abroad to assemble one of the best fields of racing talent seen anywhere in the world. The legendary greats of the past such as TULLOCH (1958/60/61), MIGHT AND POWER (1998) and LONHRO (2003) are held in the same honour as modern-day champions such as WINX (2017/18/19), ADDEYBB (2020/21) and PRIDE OF JENNI (2024).
Leading Trainer of the Queen Elizabeth is Tommy Smith with 11 victories – more than double that of second-placed Chris Waller who has 5 victories with his last coming with WINX 6 years ago. William Haggas is going for his 4th win in 7 years with DUBAI HONOUR.
George Moore has 6 wins as the Leading Jockey of the Queen Elizabeth, but Tom Marquand is also going for his 4th win in 7 years with DUBAI HONOUR. James McDonald has not won the Queen Elizabeth since 2014 onboard IT’S A DUNDEEL.
How do Favourites fare in this race?
‘Really good in recent years…’
Since 1995, a total of 12 Favourites (40%) have won highlighting a relatively consistent trend in which top contenders have managed to secure victories. This pattern has firmed over the years with 7 Favourites (47%) winning since 2010 and in the last 8 years, 5 Favourites (63%) have triumphed victorious demonstrating a continuous domination of the top line in betting.
Short-priced horses have also dominated in recent years with 11 of the past 12 winners having a SP of $8 or less. The only exception to this trend is THINK IT OVER who won in 2022 with a SP of $41 – the previous double-digit winner before that was in 2013 when RELIABLE MAN claimed victory. History shows the winner is usually found in the first few lines of the market.
What Barriers are most successful?
‘Hope for 1 to 4…’
Inside barriers have played a significant role in determining Queen Elizabeth success with 17 (57%) winners over the past 30 years emerging from Barriers 1 to 4. This pattern has remained strong over time as evidenced by 9 (60%) winners in the past 15 years and even more recently – 4 winners in the past 5 years all coming from these favourable inside gates. Although the Queen Elizabeth doesn’t necessarily always pull together a large field, the consistent dominance of horses drawn from the inside sweet spot suggests that barrier position plays a crucial role in achieving victory – particularly for horses that want to settle on pace which is a strategy that has generated plenty of success (as shown below).
Does it matter where my horse settles?
‘Big advantage on pace jumping from the inside…’
The last 10 winners of the Queen Elizabeth have settled in various positions, however, on closer inspection – 5 of the 6 winners that settled in first, second or third position at the 800m jumped from Barriers 1 to 4 to clearly show an advantage towards inside gates allowing horses to settle in an ideal position.
Here is the position at the 800m of the last 10 winners:
Nic Ashman provides race previews and tactics for jockeys/trainers in major G1 races. Star jockey Billy Egan recently reached out to Nic asking for his thoughts on the G1 Australian Guineas. Here's what Nic sent to Blly;
Nic's tactical analysis proved spot on and Billy partnered FEROCE to victory in the stallion-making contest. Now, Nic is sharing these G1 previews. The Bet Sheets include Nic's 3 Best Bets for the day with a staking plan that in its first 12 month had 609 bets for +18% Profit On Turnover. The $6/week offer wraps up after Day 2 of The Championships. That means if you start this week you get 6 x Track Reports (Syd/Mlb), 6 x Bet Sheets plus a summary in chronological order of all bets and staking plus selections in all 10 races in Sydney and Melbourne every Saturday. It's called the 'Works Burger' package and its for punters that want the lot!
Here's what our Bet Sheet looks like;
What kind of Lead-Up form should I look for?
‘Ranvet of late…’
The key lead-up in recent times has been the Ranvet Stakes which has produced 3 Queen Elizabeth winners in the past 5 years with all 3 winners finishing in the quinella of the Ranvet. However, historically winners of the Ranvet don’t have the best strike rate when it comes to taking out the Queen Elizabeth.
The Tancred was one of the most popular races used prior to the Queen Elizabeth, however, this route has diminished over the years with THINK IT OVER the last horse to run in the Tancred before winning the Queen Elizabeth in 2022 while EREMIEN was the last winner of the Tancred to then go on and win the Queen Elizabeth in 2006.
WINX used the George Ryder Stakes as a lead-up three times earlier in the decade before going on to win the Queen Elizabeth in 2017, 2018 and in her final race in 2019. CRITERION was another who used the George Ryder on his way to victory in 2015.
There have been only 11 Mare victories in the Queen Elizabeth in 71 years, however, Mares have won 6 times in the past 13 years – MORE JOYOUS (2012), LUCIA VALENTINA (2016), WINX (2017/2018/2019) and PRIDE OF JENNI. (2024).
The last 9 winners of the Queen Elizabeth have been 5YOs or older – the last 4YO to win was CRITERION in 2015.
To hear Nic's tip for the Queen Elizabeth Stakes plus an insight into this weekend's racing at Randwick for Championship Day 2, click on the latest episode of The Beaten Favourite below.
A Queen Elizabeth story?
“The not-so-happy endings…”
The Queen Elizabeth may have been the perfect send-off for WINX in 2019, however, there have been many heartbreaking stories where greats never got that final win in their final race…OCTAGONAL was beaten by INTERGAZE in 1997; LONHRO was beaten by GRAND ARMEE in 2004; and of course ANAMOE was beaten in his last start in Australia by DUBAI HONOUR in 2023.
Did you know?
“Lucky 1, 2, 3…”
Saddlecloths 1, 2 or 3 have won 18 Queen Elizabeths since 1995 – a strike rate of 60%. Saddlecloths 6 and 8 have not won in this same period.
Andy’s Rundown for the Queen Elizabeth Stakes:
The amazing record of short-priced horses over the past decade coupled with the dominance of inside barriers and winning the Ranvet really consolidates the case for VIA SISTINA who will look to make amends after last year’s second place to PRIDE OF JENNI – and I’m sure she will be closer in the run this time. So the question is – Who can mount a challenge?
The obvious candidate is DUBAI HONOUR who won in 2023, took out the Tancred 10 days ago, is the only other horse below $8, has the successful Haggas/Marquand combination and wears Saddlecloth 1 – the only issue will be the very wide barrier.
The fascinating component to this year’s race is the outstanding quality of contenders who are all over the odds and represent some value for the exotics – FANGIRL at $26 after a 0.1L second in the George Ryder has to be considered. Can punters forgive TOM KITTEN from his run last weekend and take some of the $27 on offer? CEOLWULF and VAUBAN will have their fans and rightly so at $16 and $27 respectively – but are those barriers not favourable? DENY KNOWLEDGE will find itself in a great on-pace position at $27 – but can it hold on?
If you think VIA SISTINA flunks two years in a row – then you will be well rewarded for a correct selection.
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