.png)
Saturday Bets! 2025 Surround Stakes
- Andy G
- Mar 1
- 4 min read
Barriers 1 to 5 have proved pivotal for victory in the Surround Stakes in the past decade, but it’s also been a graveyard for the Favourites.
SURROUND STAKES
1400m – Group 1 – Set Weights
The second of the G1s at Royal Randwick this weekend with a pot of $750,000 is the 47th edition of the Surround Stakes for the 3YO Fillies.
Commencing in 1979, the Surround originally started as a G3 race before quickly progressing to a G2 in 1986 before obtaining G1 status in 2018. The glittering winners list has increased in its stature over the decades with MORE JOYOUS (2010), PROBABEEL (2020), FORBIDDEN LOVE (2021) and SUNSHINE IN PARIS (2023) winning in recent times.
The Queen of Australian Racing Gai Waterhouse is the Leading Trainer of the Surround with 5 victories – her most recent was last year with Adrian Bott with TROPICAL SQUALL. Leading Jockeys with 3 wins are greats Darren Beadman and Jim Cassidy. 8 other jockeys are one back with 2 wins.
How do Favourites fare in this race?
‘Um…who else can I bet on?...’
The Surround has been a graveyard in recent times for the Favourites with the last winner NAKEETA JANE coming back in 2019. She is the only Favourite to win in the last 8 years. 5 (33%) Favourites have won in the 15 years; 10 (33%) have won in the last 30 years.
Punters have found more success backing horses of value. In the last 8 years, where only one Favourite won, 6 winners had SPs of $8.50 or more. Since 2010, the average SP for the winning horse has been $7.60. Good value when the Favourites don’t finish first.
What Barriers are most successful?
‘The wider you go, the harder it is…’
The last 5 years have revealed that Barriers 1 – 5 is the place to be with all 5 winners jumping from inside gates. In fact, the last 4 winners have jumped from Barriers 1 – 3. This is further supported over the past 13 years when 10 winners have jumped in or between Barriers 1 – 5 thus exhibiting the importance of drawing well and jumping cleanly.
The last winner who drew a double-digit barrier was PORTILLO in 2009 from Barrier 11.
Does it matter where my horse settles?
‘History saids not really, but the barrier may dictate…’
Again, we come across a race where winners have settled in various positions at the 800m before going on to win. So by probing a little more, our two winners that were positioned 9th jumped from Barrier 6 or wider. Our winners who positioned on pace in the top four jumped from Barriers 1 – 4.
Of these 10 winners, 8 jumped from Barriers 1 – 5 stressing the importance of getting out from an inside barrier for a clear advantage.
Here is the position at 800m of the last 10 winners:
TROPICAL SQUALL 1st; SUNSHINE IN PARIS 7th; HINGED 4th; FORBIDDEN LOVE 8th; PROBABEEL 6th; NAKEETA JANE 9th; SHOALS 2nd; LA BELLA DIOSA 5th; GHISONI 1st; FIRST SEAL 9th.
What kind of Lead-Up form should I look for?
‘Look at the Light Fingers…’
The Light Fingers Stakes is the most common lead-up to the Surround and with 8 runners coming out of the 2025 edition, it continues to be an important race to consider.
In the last 16 years, 10 winners raced in the Light Fingers earlier in their prep. Of those winners, 7 placed in the Light Fingers. So a pretty good strike comes out of the Light Fingers – but it’s the Favourites who have won the Surround who have found form in the Light Fingers. Of the last 5 Favourites who have won the Surround, 4 finished in the quinella of the Light Fingers. The other runner was 1UP.
The only other road to be considered is the path of the 1UP contender. 3 winners have been 1UP in the last 9 years including last year’s winner. There are 3 horses 1UP in the 2025 Surround.
What should I take note of?
‘Lucky numbers for once…’
There has been some unlucky numbers mentioned in previous articles – but how about some numbers that consistently win? In the last 30 years, Saddlecloths 1, 2 or 3 have won 21 (67%) times. Good strike rate considering there are 15 horses in this year’s race.
TBF Trivia
‘Can’t be perfect all the time…’
In 2015, the Surround was won by FIRST SEAL with SUPARA and SLIGHTLY SWEET in second and third respectively with AMICUS rounding out the First Four. The next horse coming in 5th was WINX finishing 5L behind the winner – the furthest away she would ever finish in her career. Not that it affected the rest of her career…
Andy’s Rundown for the Australian Guineas:
LADY SHENANDOAH is a deserved Favourite with an ideal barrier with J-Mac on board (who was the last jockey to take a Favourite to victory on NAKEETA JANE who also won the Light Fingers). So everything does look good for her breaking the Favourites curse. The two dangers are LILAC and LADY OF CAMELOT who are drawn outside of LADY SHENANDOAH but are still in the sweet spot of Barriers 4 and 5 respectively. Both leaders who, if they get the jump, can pressure the favourite to potentially over race and maybe grind a win at value odds. DECLICHY BOULEVARD should improve and run on to make up the First Four.
Nic Ashman Tip: Impossible to go past LADY SHENANDOAH but if there’s a boilover it could come from her stablemate AMELITA who was the only horse to come home stronger in the Light Fingers Stakes.
Comments