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Saturday Bets! 2025 Sydney Cup
- Andy G
- Apr 10
- 5 min read
The last 6 winners of the Sydney Cup have all carried 52.5kg or less with SPs between $5.50 and $26 – so will the lightweights dominate again at hefty odds?
SYDNEY CUP
3200m – Group 1 – Handicap
The two-mile Sydney Cup highlights another significant G1 on Championship Day 2 with the Open Class horses racing under Handicap conditions for the 160th edition.
Originating in 1866, the Sydney Cup is one of only two 3200m G1 races in Australia – the other obviously the Melbourne Cup. The ultimate stayer’s trip has produced some famous winners in Sydney including THE BARB (1868/69), CARBINE (1889/90), EURYTHMIC (1921), TIE THE KNOT (1998/99) and MAKYBE DIVA (2004).
Dan Lewis was the Leading Trainer of the Sydney Cup for a long time with 5 victories until Chris Waller came and joined him with 5 wins between 2011 and 2021. The Leading Jockey is shared amongst 8 riders all on 3 wins – Jim Cassidy, Peter Cook, Tom Hales, George Moore, Noel McGrowdie, Darby Munro, Neville Sellwood and Albert Wood.
How do Favourites fare in this race?
‘They win – but there is value when they don’t…’
While the Sydney Cup has thrown up its fair share of surprises over the years, Favourites have a modest record in the Sydney Cup securing just 10 (33%) wins in the past 30 years. This trend has declined in recent years with only 4 Favourites emerging victorious since 2010. Last year, CIRCLE OF FIRE broke a significant drought becoming the first Favourite to win the race since THE OFFER in 2014.
Despite this, the Sydney Cup remains a race that has provided excellent value for punters. In fact, 5 of the last 7 winners have had SPs ranging between $12 and $26 and 7 of the last 10 winners were priced at $10 or more. Among these, 4 winners had SPs between $18 and $41, proving that the race often rewards those willing to back longer-priced contenders. The shortest-priced winner in the last decade was CIRCLE OF FIRE with an SP of $5.50 offering some value even at the top of the market. This combination of occasional Favourites and often high-priced outsiders makes the Sydney Cup a particularly intriguing race for those looking for unpredictable results due to the handicap conditions.
What Barriers are most successful?
‘From inside to outside…’
The inside gates have historically proven to be the most successful in the Sydney Cup, but this success has not been overwhelming or one-sided. Since 1995, horses starting from Barriers 1 to 4 have secured victory 12 (40%) times while those starting from the middle gates 5 to 9 have won 11 (37%) times demonstrating a fairly balanced distribution of wins between the two positions.
However, in the past 15 years, the trend has shifted slightly with Barriers 1 to 4 starting to show a greater dominance yielding 7 (47%) winners. Interestingly, as we have approached the last decade, this trend has reversed with horses jumping from wider gates in Barriers 10 to 14 defying the usual pattern and producing 4 winners. This shift indicates the traditionally favourable inside barriers no longer provide a greater chance for success.
Does it matter where my horse settles?
‘50% have been off speed…’
No clear pattern for settling positions for winners of the Sydney Cup, but notably, 5 winners in the past decade have found themselves in an off-midfield/backmarker position at the 800m.
Here is the position at the 800m of the last 10 winners:
Nic Ashman provides race previews and tactics for jockeys/trainers in major G1 races. Star jockey Billy Egan recently reached out to Nic asking for his thoughts on the G1 Australian Guineas. Here's what Nic sent to Blly;
Nic's tactical analysis proved spot on and Billy partnered FEROCE to victory in the stallion-making contest. Now, Nic is sharing these G1 previews. The Bet Sheets include Nic's 3 Best Bets for the day with a staking plan that in its first 12 month had 609 bets for +18% Profit On Turnover. The offer wraps up after Day 2 of The Championships. That means if you start this week you get 6 x Track Reports (Syd/Mlb), 6 x Bet Sheets plus a summary in chronological order of all bets and staking plus selections in all 10 races in Sydney and Melbourne every Saturday. It's called the 'Works Burger' package and its for punters that want the lot! Click the box below and enter the coupon code "Slipper25".
Here's what our Bet Sheet looks like;
What kind of Lead-Up form should I look for?
‘The Chairman’s Quality dominates…’
Although raced last week, the best lead-up for the Sydney Cup is the Chairman’s Quality which was raced at Randwick on Championship Day 1. Historically, 15 winners in the last 30 years have come through the Chairman’s Quality. More recently, 9 winners have come through the Chairman’s Quality since 2010 while in the last 6 years, 4 winners have raced in the Chairman’s Quality prior to the Sydney Cup.
The Tancred is the only other notable race that was used often at the turn of the century, however, it has only been utilised twice in the last decade. Only 4 winners in the last 20 years have not used the Chairman’s Quality or the Tancred as a lead-up to the Sydney Cup.
The lighter-weighted contenders have enjoyed considerable success in the Sydney Cup. In the past 6 years, each of the winners has carried 52.5kg or less and even more emphatically – in the last decade, 9 winners have also carried 52.5kg or less with 5 of those winners weighing in at just 51.5kg.
On the other hand, carrying more to victory has been much more rare. Since 1995, only 8 horses have managed to win while carrying more than 55kg. Furthermore, only 2 horses have carried more than 56kg to victory during the same period – TIE THE KNOT (1999) carrying 57kg and MOURAYAN (2013) carrying 58kg.
13 of the last 14 winners have been 5YOs or older. CIRCLE OF FIRE won last year as a 4YO – the last 4YO to win before that was JESSICABEEL (2010). Only 4 Mares have won in the past 30 years – ETAH JAMES (2020), JESSICABEEL (2010), MAKYBE DIVA (2004) and HONOR BABE (2003).
To hear Nic's tip for the Sydney Cup plus an insight into this weekend's racing at Randwick, click on the latest episode of The Beaten Favourite below.
A Sydney Cup story?
“The heaviest winner…”
In 1869, THE BARB carried 67kg to victory in the Sydney Cup as a 5YO – a weight record that no other horse has ever approached in winning the race since.
The numbers?
“Unlucky 6…”
Saddlecloth 6 has not won in 30 years – over to you ZARDOZI.
Andy’s Rundown for the Sydney Cup:
The complete dominance of lighter-weighted horses since 2015 should be a pivotal consideration for punters and wipes out 7 potential contenders. The other point worth noting is the amount of double-digit winners in the same period as well.
So I start to look at VALIANT KING – coming out of a Chairman’s Quality finishing third and will be 3kg lighter racing at 50kg and an OP of $20 – that’s a case worth considering. RIVER OF STARS now has one Australian run under her belt coming out of the Tancred and could run away from them at $18. We can’t forget about the Favourite ALALCANCE who has just been superb this prep winning 3 in a row including the Chairman’s Quality last start and now has only 52kg on her back and let us Work Burgerians cheer home CLEVELAND who could make Saturday a very, very, very good day.
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