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Saturday Bets! 2025 Tancred Stakes
- Andy G
- Mar 27
- 5 min read
Updated: Mar 28
With Favourites having a 47% strike rate in the Tancred since 1995, will DUBAI HONOUR continue the trend – or will we get our third longshot in a row?
TANCRED STAKES
2400m – Group 1 – Weight For Age
The Sydney Autumn Carnival continues this Saturday with the 63rd running of the Tancred Stakes over 2400m with prizemoney of $1.5 million.
Raced under WFA conditions, the Tancred is the only Open WFA 2400m race in Australia at G1 level. As such, many have used this race as a lead-up into the Sydney Cup later in the Autumn. The race has attracted many greats since its inception in 1963 with KINGSTON TOWN (1980), MIGHT AND POWER (1998), ETHEREAL (2002), VERRY ELLEEGANT (2020) and SIR DRAGONET (2021) all winning the event.
The Leading Trainer of the Tancred is John Hawkes who has celebrated 5 victories. Leading Jockey goes to Shane Dye who has also won the race 5 times. Funnily enough, the pair joined forces in 1997 when Dye rode the Hawkes-trained OCTAGONAL to victory over ARKADY and ISTIDAAD.
How do Favourites fare in this race?
‘History shows most punters win…’
Since 1995, 14 Favourites have been first past the post showcasing a compelling success rate of 47%. More specifically, in the last 9 years, the Favourites have claimed victory 6 times – and to consolidate their success even more – 4 Favourites have won since 2019. If I put $100 on the Favourites since I started high school in 1995 – I’d be up $861.
To demonstrate how dominant Favourites and other horses towards the top of the market have been – between 2012 and 2022 – all 11 winners had a SP of $5.50 or lower with the average SP for these winners being $3.40. The last two years however have disrupted this trend with ARAPAHO winning with a SP of $14 in 2023 and KALAPOUR triumphing in 2024 with a much higher SP of $31 marking significant anomalies compared to the previous decade's pattern.
What Barriers are most successful?
‘As long as you are not 10 or higher…’
Over the past 30 years, 47% of winners have come from Barriers 1 to 4 indicating success has usually been generated for horses starting from the inside positions. However, in the last 15 years, there has been a slight shift towards the middle gates with Barriers 5 to 9 accounting for 53% of the victories.
In the most recent decade, this trend has levelled out with an even split between Barriers 1 to 4 and 5 to 9 with each producing 5 winners. Notably, there have been only 2 winners win from a double-digit barrier in the past 30 years – the most recent was FIUMICINO in 2009 marking a rare occurrence.
Does it matter where my horse settles?
‘Stay between 4th and 7th…’
8 of the 10 last winners of the Tancred have settled between 4th and 7th at the 800m mark demonstrating a clear pattern that the key to success is to be settled in midfield, stalk on pace horses and then challenge down the Rosehill straight.
Here is the position at the 800m of the last 10 winners:
Nic Ashman provides race previews and tactics for jockeys/trainers in major G1 races. Star jockey Billy Egan recently reached out to Nic asking for his thoughts on the G1 Australian Guineas. Here's what Nic sent to Blly;
Nic's tactical analysis proved spot on and Billy partnered FEROCE to victory in the stallion-making contest. Now, Nic is sharing these G1 previews. The Bet Sheets include Nic's 3 Best Bets for the day with a staking plan that in its first 12 month had 609 bets for +18% Profit On Turnover. The offer wraps up after Day 2 of The Championships. That means if you start this week you get 6 x Track Reports (Syd/Mlb), 6 x Bet Sheets plus a summary in chronological order of all bets and staking plus selections in all 10 races in Sydney and Melbourne every Saturday. It's called the 'Works Burger' package and its for punters that want the lot! Click the box below and enter the coupon code "Slipper25".
Here's what our Bet Sheet looks like;
What kind of Lead-Up form should I look for?
‘Not one size fits all…’
Historically, the two best races that have been utilised by Tancred winners are the Ranvet Stakes and the Australian Cup which have produced 10 and 7 winners respectively of the Tancred in the last 20 years. With the Australian Cup now clashing with the Tancred this Saturday, this route is no longer viable. The 2025 Ranvet was raced last week, however, no horse will back up in the Tancred.
The new common race used by winners in the past decade is the Verry Elleegant Stakes. Since 2015, 5 winners of the Tancred have used the Verry Elleegant during their prep before arriving at the Tancred. Not one of those 5 winners won the Verry Elleegant.
This year’s Tancred has a sprinkle of 1UPs with 3 horses racing for the first time in Australia this prep after finishing their previous preps in either Hong Kong or France. No horse has won 1UP in 30 years.
8 of the last 11 winners have been either 4YOs or 5YOs exposing the great success the younger horses have had since 2014. Mares have struggled for wins too with 11 wins since 1963. DUAIS was the last in 2022.
To hear Nic's tip for the Tancred Stakes plus an insight into this weekend's racing at Rosehill and Flemington, click on the latest episode of The Beaten Favourite below.
Did you know?
“The rare double…”
KINGSTON TOWN (1980) and TIE THE KNOT (1999) are the only two horses to complete the Tancred/Sydney Cup double since it was switched from handicap to a WFA race in 1977.
Andy’s Rundown for the Tancred Stakes:
I feel the best thing to do is add another $100 to the term deposit – and back the Favourite DUBAI HONOUR. Jumping from Barrier 4 should see him settle in that 4th to 7th position which has proved so successful for Favourites in the past decade. Haggas and Marquand have been a very effective combination in Sydney Autumns in previous years – I’m sure they are looking to start this campaign off on the right foot.
VAUBAN was mega last start beating ARAPAHO who looks to turn the tables with an extra 400m to work with. LA CRIQUE looks over the odds and looking for some luck here in Australia after finishing second in her last four races (all G1s in New Zealand). RIVER OF STARS has a yuck barrier, but with J-Mac on board, we know the double-digit barrier hoodoo could end.
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