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Saturday Bets! 2025 TJ Smith Stakes
- Andy G
- 24 hours ago
- 5 min read
With 12 of the last 15 winners of the TJ Smith starting with SPs of $9 or less, will the trend continue in 2025? Or will another long shot like CHAIN OF LIGHTNING be the story?
TJ SMITH STAKES
1200m – Group 1 – Weight For Age
The famed TJ Smith Stakes is Race 7 on the Championship Day 1 card with the G1 sprint for open class horses raced over 1200m under Weight For Age conditions.
The TJ Smith is a fairly new race conducted for the first time in 1997 as a Listed race. After only one year, it became a G3 race and by 2002 a G2 race. In 2005, 8 years after its inception, it was granted G1 status. In its short history, the TJ Smith has accumulated some famous names on its winner’s list: BLACK CAVIAR (2011/13) MAHOGANY (1997) TAKEOVER TARGET (2009) NATURE STRIP (2020/21/22) and CHAUTAUQUA (2015/16/17).
Peter Moody is the Leading Trainer of the TJ Smith with his 4th win last year and leads 3 other Trainers by one including Hawkes, Waterhouse and Waller. The Leading Jockey is spread evenly with Tommy Berry, James McDonald and Luke Nolen all on 3 wins each.
How do Favourites fare in this race?
‘Good – in clusters…’
Favourites have emerged victorious 10 times since the inception of the TJ Smith in 1997. Of these 10 wins, 5 have occurred within the last 15 years and 3 have taken place in the last 5 years indicating a more recent dominance. Interestingly, when the Favourites have won, it has tended to happen in clusters or streaks rather than sporadically. For example, between 1997 and 1999, the Favourites won consecutively followed by a series of wins in 2011, 2013 and 2014. More recently, from 2020 to 2022, the Favourites once again managed to secure multiple victories. Are we on the verge of another streak?
In recent history, the SPs of the winners have consistently been in the single digits. From 2013 to 2023, the winning SP was $9 or less with 7 of those victories coming at $4.20 or less. This trend of low-priced winners was broken last year when CHAIN OF LIGHTNING triumphed in the TJ Smith at a SP of $21 becoming the first double-digit winner since MASTER OF DESIGN who won in 2012.
What Barriers are most successful?
‘Don’t dismiss wide barriers…’
In the past 28 years, Barriers 1 – 4 and 5 – 9 have dominated in terms of winning gates with strike rates of 36% and 39% respectively. This trend is not surprising given the unique positioning of the barriers at Randwick which naturally favours these positions.
However, despite the common expectation that outside barriers may not perform as well, particularly with the generally smaller fields of the TJ Smith, recent years have shown otherwise. In the past decade, horses drawn in outside Barriers 11 and 12 have won 4 times compared to the 3 wins each from the inside Barriers 1 – 4 and the middle Barriers 5 – 9. More notably, in the last 3 years, horses from Barriers 11–12 have won twice indicating a potential reconsideration of the usual assumption about wide barrier positions being inferior.
Does it matter where my horse settles?
‘Leaders – go forward; Backmarkers – stay back…’
As identified in the table below, winners have settled either on-pace or out the back when making the turn for home. The contributing factor to this stat is the racing pattern of these winners – NATURE STRIP was a leader and won 3 times; CHAUTAUQUA was a backmarker and won 3 times.
Here is the position at the 400m of the last 10 winners:
Nic Ashman provides race previews and tactics for jockeys/trainers in major G1 races. Star jockey Billy Egan recently reached out to Nic asking for his thoughts on the G1 Australian Guineas. Here's what Nic sent to Blly;
Nic's tactical analysis proved spot on and Billy partnered FEROCE to victory in the stallion-making contest. Now, Nic is sharing these G1 previews. The Bet Sheets include Nic's 3 Best Bets for the day with a staking plan that in its first 12 month had 609 bets for +18% Profit On Turnover. The offer wraps up after Day 2 of The Championships. That means if you start this week you get 6 x Track Reports (Syd/Mlb), 6 x Bet Sheets plus a summary in chronological order of all bets and staking plus selections in all 10 races in Sydney and Melbourne every Saturday. It's called the 'Works Burger' package and its for punters that want the lot! Click the box below and enter the coupon code "Slipper25".
Here's what our Bet Sheet looks like;
What kind of Lead-Up form should I look for?
‘Newmarket generally – but not always…’
The Newmarket Handicap has been the most popular lead-up race for TJ Smith winners with 5 horses in the last 11 years racing in the Newmarket prior to the TJ Smith. Moreover, 4 of the 5 winners who raced in Newmarket placed in the trifecta. Despite the popularity of the Newmarket participants heading to Sydney – recently only one winner has come from the Newmarket route in the last 5 years.
The Black Caviar (Lightning) Stakes has also been a popular race used by winners during their prep with 4 of the last 5 winners of the TJ Smith racing in the Black Caviar earlier in their prep. In variance, CHAIN OF LIGHTNING became the first TJ Smith winner to race in the Oakleigh Plate as part of their preparation since LANKAN RUPEE in 2014.
In the last decade, 7 of the 10 winners have been 5YOs or older. Only 6 3YOs have won the TJ Smith since 1997 – the last was TRAPEZE ARTIST in 2018. Only 8 Fillies and Mares have won the TJ Smith – the last was CHAIN OF LIGHTNING in 2024; before that was BLACK CAVIAR in 2013.
To hear Nic's tip for the TJ Smith plus an insight into this weekend's racing at Randwick, click on the latest episode of The Beaten Favourite below.
Did you know?
“Here are the unlucky numbers…”
HEADWALL, BRIASA, MAGIC TIME and SWITZERLAND are up against the superstitious this weekend – Saddlecloths 4, 5, 8 and 11 have never won the TJ Smith.
Andy’s Rundown for the TJ Smith Stakes:
JOLIESTAR is a deserved favourite after her magnificent run in the Newmarket – and with that race proving so successful for TJ Smith runners, along with her $4 SP, she is hard to ignore. I feel the other one punters should not ignore is JIMMYSSTAR – the Oakleigh Plate winner is looking to follow the same path as last year’s winner and has claims with two strong runs this prep. The pros continue as he is in the historically success $9 or less SP range and carrying 58.5kg should not be a problem on a drying track considering 9 of the last 11 winners carried 58.5kg. Must consider.
Then there is the forgotten two – HEADWALL – flashed home in the Newmarket to finish a close second and is now $27 – what’s that about? SWITZERLAND is a proven top-quality horse – write him off at your peril.
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