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Saturday Bets! 2025 Vinery Stud Stakes
- Andy G
- Mar 28
- 5 min read
TREASURETHE MOMENT looks to continue her outstanding form in the Vinery Stud this Saturday, but will a Heavy track derail the Favourite and give hope to a contender?
VINERY STUD STAKES
2000m – Group 1 – Set Weights
The final G1 at Rosehill for the Sydney Autumn Carnival is the Vinery Stud Stakes for the 3YO Fillies carrying 56kg over 2000m with a hefty prize pool of $750,000.
Raced under Set Weight conditions, the Vinery Stud is into its 47th edition with the first won by IMPEDE back in 1979. The race is synonymous with VRC Oaks winners heading north the following prep and contesting the Vinery Stud where they have an impressive record of 10 winners from 25 starters. Many horses from the Vinery Stud will contest the ATC Oaks two weeks later with the last horse to do the double (Vinery Stud/ATC Oaks) being HUNGRY HEART in 2021.
Bart Cummings leads the way for another Rosehill G1 as Leading Trainer with 4 Vinery Stud victories while Mick Dittman and Hugh Bowman have 3 victories each and share the honour of Leading Jockey.
How do Favourites fare in this race?
‘Another term deposit…’
The Vinery Stud is another Rosehill G1 with a fantastic record for the Favourites with 15 winners since 1995. There have been stages throughout the last 30 years however where Favourites have gone on a bit of a dry spell (particularly from 2014 to 2018), but with 3 Favourites winning in the past 6 years – the Vinery Stud is another term deposit race with the average punter up $566 from a $100 bet since 1995.
The SPs of the Vinery Stud have been fascinating with notably 5 of the last 6 winners having a SP of $6 or less lending support to the recent trend of Favourites winning. However, prior to this period – a different pattern emerged where 6 of the 7 winners between 2014 and 2020 had a SP of $9.50 or more. This shift indicates that when Favourites don't win, there is ample value for punters betting on the outsiders. Might be the case again on Saturday.
What Barriers are most successful?
‘1-4 is where you want to be…’
There is a clear bias towards Barriers 1 to 4 for Vinery Stud winners with a notable history of success for horses jumping from these gates. Since 1995, there have been 14 winners starting from Barriers 1 – 4 boasting an impressive strike rate of 47%. This trend has strengthened in recent years as evidenced by 6 winners in the past decade raising the strike rate to 60%. Even more comprehensively, the last 5 years have produced 3 winners from Barriers 1 – 4, including the last two winners in 2023 and 2024.
With only a small field of nine for this year’s race, an inside gate could be the difference after 2000m.
Does it matter where my horse settles?
‘Well on a Heavy it might…’
7 of the past 10 winners have settled on speed or in the midfield pack. However, I would like to point out the two Vinery Studs that were run on a Heavy track in the past decade were won by horses settling 8th in an off-midfield position. With a Heavy track predicted on Saturday, could this be the pattern to follow?
Here is the position at the 800m of the last 10 winners:
Nic Ashman provides race previews and tactics for jockeys/trainers in major G1 races. Star jockey Billy Egan recently reached out to Nic asking for his thoughts on the G1 Australian Guineas. Here's what Nic sent to Blly;
Nic's tactical analysis proved spot on and Billy partnered FEROCE to victory in the stallion-making contest. Now, Nic is sharing these G1 previews. The Bet Sheets include Nic's 3 Best Bets for the day with a staking plan that in its first 12 month had 609 bets for +18% Profit On Turnover. The offer wraps up after Day 2 of The Championships. That means if you start this week you get 6 x Track Reports (Syd/Mlb), 6 x Bet Sheets plus a summary in chronological order of all bets and staking plus selections in all 10 races in Sydney and Melbourne every Saturday. It's called the 'Works Burger' package and its for punters that want the lot! Click the box below and enter the coupon code "Slipper25".
Here's what our Bet Sheet looks like;
What kind of Lead-Up form should I look for?
‘Phar Lap now the right form…’
The lead-up form to the Vinery Stud has changed throughout the years with historically most winners and contenders coming through the Coolmore Classic or the Kembla Grange Classic. The last two winners, PROWESS and ORCHESTRAL, prepped in New Zealand under the guidance of Trainers Roger James and Robert Wellwood.
So, for an Australian path to the Vinery Stud, the most popular lead-up before the Kiwi invaders won was the Phar Lap Stakes with 4 of the 5 winners between 2018 and 2022 using this race on route to winning the Vinery Stud. In 2025, the top four contenders in the market of the Vinery Stud behind TREASURETHE MOMENT all raced in the Phar Lap.
Furthermore, 8 of the last 10 winners of the Vinery Stud all placed in their lead-up run to the race with 6 of those 8 actually first past the post in that lead-up. Coming in hot has been an ingredient for success.
Did you know?
“All in on the 1…”
Saddlecloth 1 has a mortgage on this race with an astonishing 14 victories in 30 years – including the last two on PROWESS and ORCHESTRAL.
To hear Nic's tip for the Vinery Stakes plus an insight into this weekend's racing at Rosehill and Flemington, click on the latest episode of The Beaten Favourite below.
Andy’s Rundown for the Vinery Stud Stakes:
The easy thing to do here is make the case for TREASURETHE MOMENT – and you can – Favourite; Saddlecloth 1; coming in hot with 2 wins already this prep as well as being arguably the best 3YO Filly in the country…so if you don’t want to contribute to the term deposit and a little worried knowing she has never run on a Heavy track before – which way do we go?
If you are looking for value, then maybe you can turn your attention to DECLICHY BOULEVARD and REAL CLASS. DECLICHY BOULEVARD was third in the Phar Lap and will settle off midfield – and we know the success horses have had off midfield on Heavy tracks in the past decade. REAL CLASS is jumping from the sweet spot of Barrier 4 and will look to improve from her first run in Australia in the Phar Lap – and we know the success Kiwis have had here recently. BENAGIL jumps from 2 and will look to get the ideal rails run.
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