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The 2024 Melbourne Cup Carnival commences this Saturday as Flemington host arguably the best day of racing on the Australian calendar – Derby Day featuring nine group races.
PHOTO: COLEMAN after trackwork recently. The colt gets a mention in the Saturday Bets! podcast below.
Additionally, the second richest race in Australia (and third richest on turf in the world) the Golden Eagle is back for its sixth edition at Rosehill.
This article has been extended this week to incorporate the vast variety of Group 1s in Melbourne including the Victorian Derby, Coolmore Stud Stakes and the Empire Rose along with the $10 million Golden Eagle in Sydney.
VICTORIAN DERBY – 2500m
4 of the last 12 winners have been Favourites
7 of the last 12 winners have had a SP of $9.50 or less
9 of the last 12 winners have won from Barriers 1 – 7
10 of the last 12 winners have worn Saddlecloths 1 – 7
Tip Via The Stats:
2. RED ACES $7 – 2u
· Barrier 4; Saddlecloth 2; SP less than $9.50
5. SAINT EMILION $14 – 1u
· Barrier 6; Saddlecloth 5
Nic Ashman Tip:
Our Works Burger subs are on EL CASTELLO in a double to collect at $29 so we’ll be cheering him very hard. That said, everything has fallen into place well for RED ACES, who ticks the boxes above and his sectionals say 2500m will suit immensely.
COOLMORE STUD STAKES – 1200m
3 of the last 12 winners have been Favourites
8 of the last 12 winners have had a SP of $9.50 or less
8 of the last 12 winners have won from Barriers 7 – 15
4 of the last 12 winners have been Fillies
Chris Waller is the Leading Trainer for this race – 5 wins
Tip Via The Stats:
5. SWITZERLAND $6.50 – 2u
· Barrier 8; SP less than $9.50; Trainer – Waller
Nic Ashman Tip:
I can't understand why BELLATRIX STAR is $11 given what this filly has done this preparation. She’s gone from being a horse that needed give in the ground to producing some of the highest rated 3YO dry track performances of the season so far. From gate 11 she’ll drop in behind runners and come to the outside to launch her customary whirlwind finish.
EMPIRE ROSE STAKES – 1600m
3 of the last 12 winners have been Favourites
7 of the last 12 winners have had a SP of $10 or more
10 of the last 12 winners have been 4YO or older
10 of the last 12 winners have won from Barriers 8 – 13
8 of the last 12 winners have worn Saddlecloths 1 – 6
Tip Via The Stats:
5. ZARDOZI $21 – 2u
· Barrier 11; SP more than $10; 4YO; Saddlecloth 5
12. ORCHESTRAL $7.50 – 1u
· Barrier 12; 4YO; Saddlecloth 3
Nic Ashman Tip:
As you can see in the stats above, this is a good race for roughies. LEKVARTE produced a very slick last 600m to win second-up at the mile and her last 200m suggested there might be more to come. Her jockey Josh Parr has the best Flemington strike rate of any hoop at the meeting.
Rosehill Gardens November 2
GOLDEN EAGLE – 1500m
1 of the last 5 winners have been Favourites
4 of the last 5 winners have had a SP of $9.50 or less
3 of the last 5 winners have weighed 57.5kg
4 of the last 5 winners have used either the Tramway Stakes or the Toorak Handicap as a lead up race
Last winner – OBAMBURUMAI (2023) – was first up
5 of the last 5 winners have won from an even number barrier – 2, 10, 8, 6, 4
Tip Via The Stats:
12. LAZZAT $5.50 – 2u
· (Even) Barrier 12; SP less than $9.50; First up
3. TOM KITEN $9 – 1u
· (Even) Barrier 2; SP $9.50; 57.5kg
Nic Ashman Tip:
The Japanese raider ASCOLI PICENO has produced international ratings well beyond any of these. It’s a case of if she turns up, they won’t beat her. Her win over a mile recently rated around 3L better than the next peak in this field. Wide gate might work for her because the Japanese like room to move and if you watch her replays, she typically comes down the centre of the track.
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