STATE OF ORIGIN PREVIEW

Here is your preview of Game 1 of the 2024 State Of Origin series.

State of Origin Game 1

Accor stadium, Sydney 8:05pm

NSW $2.02 V $1.82 QLD

Line: NSW $1.98 (+1) V (-1) $1.83 QLD

Total match points: $1.93 Over (+36.5), $1.87 Under (+36.5)

Looking at the head-to-head stats:

NSW have won 6 of the last 8 Origin matches at Accor Stadium. QLD have won the last 3 Origin Game 1s in Sydney.

The last 6 NSW head coaches have won their first game coached in Sydney.

The last 7 teams coming off their 2nd straight Origin series win have lost Game 1.

Jake Trbojevic has won his last 4 Origin games in Sydney. 

Here are the stats in relation to the margins:

9 of the 10 Origin Game 1s in Sydney have been decided by 8 or less points. 6 of NSW's last 7 Origin wins have been by 13+ points. 10 of NSW's last 12 wins in Sydney have been by 1-12 points. QLD's last 12 Game 1 wins has been decided by 1-12 points. QLD's largest winning margin at Accor Stadium is 10 points.

Let’s take a look at try scorer stats for game 1;

Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow playing left centre, has scored in all 4 Origin matches he has played in.

QLD has scored 41% of their tries in Origin Game 1 down their left edge.

If Joseph Suaalii plays left centre for the Blues, the left centre has scored in all 3 games last series.

NSW left centre has scored in 4 of the last 5 Origin games in Sydney and is the top scoring position in Origin since 2018 with 13 tries.

Xavier Coates playing right centre has scored in his only Origin game at Accor.

The QLD right winger has scored 6 tries in the last 6 Origin Game 1s.

The right winger has scored 12 tries in the last 18 Origin games. James Tedesco recalled for the blues at fullback, has scored 3 tries in his last 4 Origins in Sydney. 

Here are the relevant first Tryscorer stats;

QLD has scored the first try in the last 5 Origin games.

Valentine Holmes playing right centre, has scored the 1st try in 7 of his 16 Origin matches including in 2 of the last 4 Origins. Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow/Joseph Suaalii both playing left centre for their states, left centre has scored the first try in 4 of the last 7 Origin games.

Stephen Crichton playing right, the NSW right centre has scored first the most of any position for a state in the last 5 Origin series.

Anytime try scorers 

James Tedesco $3.20

Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow $2.75

Joseph Suaalii $3.90

Xavier Coates $2.25

Mitch's Multi $45.75

Total match points under +36.5

Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow $2.75

Joseph Suaalii $3.90

Either team by 12 or less $1.50

Tip sheet for NRL Round 14 will be out Thursday morning. Below is the Origin podcast!