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Here are the TBF Ratings for the 2022 Melbourne Cup with some surprise runners near the top of the list.
History of our database tells us in order to win, a horse must have run a rating at its last 3 starts that is within 5 lengths of the Cup's top rater.
This year Deauville Legend will go into the $8million feature as the TBF top rater having posted a 95 rating when victorious in the G2 Great Voltiguer Stakes. That means we will only entertain horses that have posted a 90-rating or greater at their last 3 runs.
Once we've obtained what we call "L3SP" [LAST 3 STARTS PEAK] we then have to determine the likelihood of the horse running that figure. The two most common reasons for a horse not running to a current rating is change in distance and track condition.
So here we go!
DEAUVILLE LEGEND 95
He ran this figure last start over 2385m so there is a small concern about 3200m. He's posted 93 and 94 at his previous runs and providing he turns up in the same form they are going to find it awfully hard to beat him. Reports are he's settled in well, eating up and hasn't lost any weight [key for the internationals]. His query is he's never raced on a wet track and the forecast is for rain.
VOW AND DECLARE 94
We didn't see this horse being No.2 on our ratings. Its courtesy of his 3rd placing over 2500m carrying 61kg on a soft 7. That's his career peak rating for a wet track but a heavy surface would be a concern. We have no concern at 3200m as he won the 2019 Melbourne Cup.
GOLD TRIP 93
His 2nd in the Caulfield Cup carrying this weight earned him a decent rating and you can just forget he went around in the Cox Plate when held up badly. His best form is on the wet but there is a query with him at 3200m given his last 200m in the Caulfield Cup ranked 10th in race.
HOO YA MAL 93
THis peak figure is an outlier in his form with every other career run rating under 90. The reports are he hasn't really settled in to life down under plus he doesn't like wet tracks. Classy horse when right but is he right?
NUMERIAN 93
His 3rd in the G2 Hill Stakes over 2000m on a heavy track won by Cascadian gets him a 93. But he rated down when he stepped up to 2400m in the Caulfield Cup and we feel 3200m is a big stretch for him. There's a small chance he had a flat run in the Caulfield Cup and that's why he rated down. Horses can do this off big peak runs like his HIll Stakes effort. If that theory proves correct then he's right in it.
MONTEFILIA 92
She was 3rd in Cascadian's Hill Stakes and had little chance of posting a high rating in a slowly run Caulfield Cup. She ran the best last 200m of the meeting and is proven up to 2400m. Despite winning on the heavy, and this 92 coming on a heavy track, our ratings show she is superior on dry tracks especially when she gets out in distance.
WITHOUT A FIGHT 92
He bolted in over 2787m two starts ago posting this figure, which feels pretty reliable given its distance. He's placed 4 from 5 on soft tracks but has never seen heavy.
KNIGHTS ORDER 90
He's run this figure twice at his last 3 starts over 2000m and 2400m. He's won over 3200m previously and relishes wet tracks.
HIGH EMOCEAN 90
Another surprise packet but her win over 2500m at Flemington with Vow And Declare 3rd gets her in the chances. The reason her rating is inferior to his despite beating Vow And Declare is she carried 54kg whereas he had 61kg.
YOUNG WERTHER 90
He was only beaten 3 lengths in the Cox Plate over 2040m. He's placed in a G1 Derby over 2400m so we're relatively confident the distance will be ok but he doesn't like heavy tracks.
There's 10 horses on the list above and most have queries at either the distance and/or wet track.
While all of the horses above are "chances" the ones we feel are most likely to run close to their L3SP based on a track condition of Soft are:
DEAUVILLE LEGEND
VOW AND DECLARE
WITHOUT A FIGHT
KNIGHTS ORDER
HIGH EMOCEAN
We'd suggest taking Quinellas, Trifectas and First 4s mixing up the ones you like from the 10 horses above or the shorter list of 5.
Good luck!
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