THURSDAY: Trackwalker Info + Best Bet

Here is the predicted track pattern and Best Bet for Thursday’s meeting at Pakenham.

TRACK

GOOD

TRACKWALKER INFO

Lanes 3+ marginally better than hard against the fence. Most horses should get their chance. Best spot is likely stalking the speed.

KEY STAT

Trainer Julius Sandhu’s stock love racing at Pakenham. The last 61 runners from that stable at Pakenham have an A2E of 1.48

A2E is short for Actual To Expected. This measures performance against the market price. Below 1.00 is performing below expectations and above 1.00 is performing above expectations. We use this to establish trends before the market catches up. How does this differ from ROI [return on investment] and POT [profit on turnover]?

This product will capture data for horses that don't win and place. EG Hugh Bowman rides a $101 chance into 4th in a 12-horse field where it was expected to finish last. This wouldn't show up on ROI or POT but A2E would record this as a positive result for Bowman.

BARRIERS

1200m or less – Chute start where covering ground is no disadvantage. In fact, if the rail is inferior it is often advantageous to draw off rail

NIC ASHMAN TIP

Race 1 No.5 RAISED BY WOLVES

“Comes out of the JENNIPENDING maiden, which we rated highly as it produced sensational late splits. We think this one will be better rolling along on top of the speed at a faster tempo. The $18 around town appeals immensely as an each-way bet ”