THURSDAY: Trackwalker Info + Best Bet

Here is the predicted track pattern and Best Bet for Thursday’s meeting at Newcastle.

TRACK

SOFT

TRACKWALKER

Lane 1 inferior, Lane 2 better but slightly inferior to Lanes 3+. We’d suggest looking settle in the running line. In bunched races [moderate tempo], look for horses that can settle deep with cover and in truly run affairs you want to be closer to the fence but not hard up against it

KEY STAT

Apprentice jockey Zac Lloyd is making the most of his opportunities with powerhouse operation, Godolphin. Lloyd has sported the Royal Blue silks on 89 occasions for 21 wins giving him a strike rate of 24%. His POT is +13% and his A2E is 1.35 when riding for James Cummings

A2E is short for Actual To Expected. This measures performance against the market price. Below 1.00 is performing below expectations and above 1.00 is performing above expectations. We use this to establish trends before the market catches up. How does this differ from ROI [return on investment] and POT [profit on turnover]?

This product will capture data for horses that don't win and place. EG Hugh Bowman rides a $101 chance into 4th in a 12-horse field where it was expected to finish last. This wouldn't show up on ROI or POT but A2E would record this as a positive result for Bowman.

TRACK MAP courtesy of The Great Tipoff

BARRIERS

1000m or less – Chute start with one turn into home straight

1200m – Short run to the home turn, wide gates can cover ground easily

NIC ASHMAN TIP

Race 3 No.1 BLACK IRIS

Recorded the best last 600m of the meeting when resuming last prep and looked a work in progress. Judging by the two recent trials, she’s come back a better horse and he’s shown a liking for wet tracks already