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Here is the predicted track pattern and Best Bet for Wednesday’s meeting at Hawkesbury.
TRACK
HEAVY
TRACKWALKER INFO
Some markings in Lanes 1-3 and we’d suggest at some point they’ll come off fence. Look for horse that can get cover, off rail in the run.
KEY STAT
Jockey Tyler Schiller and trainer Anthony Cummings are currently exceeding markets expectations by 53% with their A2E sitting at 1.53
A2E is short for Actual To Expected. This measures performance against the market price. Below 1.00 is performing below expectations and above 1.00 is performing above expectations. We use this to establish trends before the market catches up. How does this differ from ROI [return on investment] and POT [profit on turnover]?
This product will capture data for horses that don't win and place. EG Hugh Bowman rides a $101 chance into 4th in a 12-horse field where it was expected to finish last. This wouldn't show up on ROI or POT but A2E would record this as a positive result for Bowman.
BARRIERS
1000m or less – Chute start where covering ground is no disadvantage. In fact, if the rail is inferior it is often advantageous to draw off rail
1200m – Short run to the bend
NIC ASHMAN TIP
Race 3 No.2 ALCYONE
“Outstanding trial [first one, second was very quiet] leading into this and his 1UP form is superb. He’s won his past two 1UP runs including a verdict over EXCELIDA who is a Group-class mare that is running in a G1 race this Saturday. The 2kg claim for Australia’s best apprentice in Zac Lloyd is perfect and he relishes wet tracks. Reckon he’ll win this and maybe has a crack at the Hawkesbury Gold Cup in a few weeks.”
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