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Here is the predicted track pattern and Best Bet for Thursday’s meeting at Wyong.
TRACKWALKER INFO
As reported track has more give from the 1350m – 1000m [chute start]. At this point Lanes 1,2 are inferior to 3+ but if no more rain falls and the track dries out then Lane 2 should come back into play. Otherwise focus on Lanes 3-6 until we get an upgrade.
KEY STAT
The combination of jockey Regan Bayliss with the Waterhouse/Bott stable is striking at 20% from 143 rides and has a current A2E of 1.39
A2E is short for Actual To Expected. This measures performance against the market price. Below 1.00 is performing below expectations and above 1.00 is performing above expectations. We use this to establish trends before the market catches up. How does this differ from ROI [return on investment] and POT [profit on turnover]?
This product will capture data for horses that don't win and place. EG Hugh Bowman rides a $101 chance into 4th in a 12-horse field where it was expected to finish last. This wouldn't show up on ROI or POT but A2E would record this as a positive result for Bowman. This information is supplied to us by Puntingform.com.au
BARRIERS
1000m – Short run to the home turn
NIC ASHMAN TIP
Race 8 No.8 SURFERS ROYALE
Resumed at Hawkesbury against subsequent stakes winner OLENTIA and the figures from that race were solid. This looks an easier target plus he strips fitter. The $3.70 is overs, we’ve got him shorter and favourite not 2nd fav
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